目前，现货黄金已从日内高点下跌约9美元，暂报2622.77美元/盎司。Source: Wall Street See
Author: Long Yue.
Analysts pointed out that there are signs of weakness in the bulls, and there is a risk of a pullback in gold in the short term. However, it is expected that factors such as the Fed's rate cut and geopolitical conflicts will continue to support the price of gold.
Recently, the international gold price has frequently hit new highs. This afternoon, spot gold broke through $2630 per ounce to continue hitting a historic high. However, the new high in gold prices did not last long before suddenly diving and falling, causing market sentiment to gradually become cautious.
Currently, spot gold has dropped by about $9 from the daily high, temporarily trading at $2622.77 per ounce.
According to incomplete statistics, the international gold price has set new highs over 20 times this year, breaking through multiple whole number levels such as 2300, 2400, 2500, with a cumulative increase of over 27% year to date.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global central bank gold buying frenzy, geopolitical risks, and other factors have collectively pushed up the price of gold. The industry believes that the 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this time marks the entry of global central banks into an interest rate cutting cycle, further increasing the attractiveness of gold to capital flows. In addition, according to the latest reports, India's gold import value in August hit a record high of $10.06 billion.
However, analysts warn that there is short-term downward pressure on gold, indicating a potential pullback.
Short-term memory callback pressure, how much longer can this round of bull market in gold last?
Despite the recent strong rise in gold and the market showing signs of temporary weakness in the long side. Forex institution FXStreet senior analyst Dhwani Mehta said that the relative strength index (RSI) of gold shows overbought, implying short-term memory callback pressure.
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia added that although technical signals and market sentiment support the upward movement of gold, the recent rebound magnitude is too large, posing a risk of callback. However, the tense situation in the Middle East may limit the extent of the gold price correction, so gold may still fluctuate in the range of $2585-2630 in the short term.
OCBC Bank Forex strategist Christopher Wong is bullish on gold, but will choose caution in the short term:
The bullish momentum is undeniable, but in the short term, I may adopt a cautious attitude. The technical support level for gold may be around $2580 per ounce.
Some market analysts believe that factors such as the Fed's rate cut and geopolitical risks in the Middle East will continue to support the gold price.
Against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the market is concerned about the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and gold is also supported by increased safe-haven demand.
Regarding the Fed's rate cut, Fed Governor Waller said last Friday that if the economic situation develops as expected, he may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the central bank's policy meetings in November and December. However, he also said that if the job market weakens, there may be another 50 basis point rate cut.
Analysts said that before the release of various economic data in the United States, the trend of gold will provide clues for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. The preliminary value of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the United States will be announced later on Monday. If the results are better than expected, this may support the strength of the US dollar and create some selling pressure on gold prices denominated in dollars.
An analyst at Citibank stated that driven by the loose monetary policies of major central banks and the tense situation of the US presidential election, the gold price is expected to reach $3,000 next year.
Editor/Jeffy