公司首次发布中期利润分配预案，拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利人民币2.3 元（含税），共派发现金红利人民币 7.98 亿元，分红比例达31.67%，较2023年全年分红比例20.2%大幅提高，首次中期分红+分红比例提高夯实公司中长期投资价值。The volume price of the electrolytic aluminum sector rose sharply. The first mid-term dividend showed that the investment value of 2024H1 achieved operating income of 24.65 billion yuan, +39% year on year, net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, +66% year on year; 2024Q2 achieved operating income of 13.29 billion yuan, +62% year over month, and achieved net profit of 1.36 billion yuan, +115% year on month, and 16% month on month; mainly due to a sharp rise in the volume and price of electrolytic aluminum. Considering that electricity supply in Yunnan Province has improved compared to previous years, we expect the company's electrolytic aluminum production line production will be less affected by electricity production restrictions in the second half of the year. It is expected that from 2024 to 2026, the company will achieve net profit of 4.948, 5.618, and 5.93 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +25.1%, +13.5%, and +5.6%, respectively. EPS was 1.43, 1.62, and 1.71 yuan/share, respectively.” “Buy” rating.
The resumption of production in Yunnan Province in the first half of the year was ahead of schedule. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved 1.3507 million tons of raw aluminum production, an increase of 39% over the previous year, mainly due to sufficient incoming water supply in Yunnan in the first half of the year and rapid growth in electricity supply. From January to July 2024, Yunnan Province's power generation capacity was 180.08 billion kilowatt-hours, +23% year-on-year. Sufficient electricity supply also caused Yunnan Province to cut production capacity by 1.15 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in November 2023. Furthermore, the resumption of production began in March 2024, and the resumption of production was earlier than in previous years. As the electricity supply load in Yunnan Province increases, we expect the impact of electricity on the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to decline further in 2024Q4. In terms of price, the average price of 2024H1 electrolytic aluminum in the market was about 0.0198 million/ton (tax included), +7%. The average price of the 2024H1 alumina market was about 3,535 yuan/ton (tax included), +19% year-on-year. 2024H1 alumina production reached 0.723 million tons, and the alumina self-sufficiency rate was close to 30%.
The first mid-term dividend consolidates the company's medium- to long-term investment value
The company first announced a mid-term profit distribution plan. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2.3 (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, and a total discovery dividend of RMB 0.798 billion. The dividend ratio is 31.67%, which is a significant increase from 20.2% for the full year of 2023. The initial mid-term dividend+dividend ratio increases to consolidate the company's medium- to long-term investment value.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of fluctuations in aluminum prices, falling short of expectations in photovoltaic construction in Yunnan Province, falling short of expectations in incoming water volume in Yunnan Province, etc.
