2024H1贵金属行业实现营业总收入1482.61亿元，同比-8.94%，其中24Q2实现营收795.03亿元，同比-8.35%，环比+15.63%。2024H1贵金属行业实现归母净利润58.22亿元，同比+62.59%，其中24Q2实现归母净利润32.82亿元，同比+42.30%，环比+27.88%。Q2在降息预期推动下，叠加地缘政治因素催化，金价持续上涨，带动企业盈利同环比大幅增长。展望后市，美联储以降息50bp开启新一轮降息周期，参考历史，降息后半年内贵金属价格上行概率较大;此外，降息后通胀或将小幅上升，黄金抗通胀属性有望彰显，金价或仍有进一步上涨空间，带动相关企业盈利增长。建议关注：招金矿业(01818)、紫金矿业(601899.SH,02899)、山东黄金(600547.SH)、山金国际(000975,SH)、赤峰黄金(600988.SH)、湖南黄金(002155.SZ)、中金黄金(600489.SH)、中国黄金国际(02099)。Rising gold prices in the first half of the year drove a significant increase in year-on-year profits for companies, and the prospect of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit the future performance of precious metals.
According to the Wisdom Financial APP, Tianfeng Securities issued a research report stating that the overall situation of the non-ferrous metals sector in 24H1 saw differentiated profits on the resource side, with significant year-on-year growth in the copper and gold sectors and a clear improvement on the material side. Regarding small metals, antimony, tungsten, and tin continued to strengthen, with varying company profit performance. The supply and demand pattern of energy metals continues, lithium companies are under pressure, and attention is drawn to relative bottom opportunities. In terms of index performance, the 24H1 non-ferrous metals sector rose by +2.7%, a 6% decline from Q1, mainly due to late Q2 copper, gold stock downturns, and drag from the energy metals sector, but overall still stronger than the CSI 300 Index. The 24Q2 non-ferrous metals sector rose by -7.3%, weaker than the CSI 300 Index, with slight declines in precious metals and industrial metals, and the largest decline in energy metals.
Precious Metals: Rising gold prices in the first half of the year drove a significant increase in year-on-year profits for companies, and the prospect of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit the future performance of precious metals.
In 2024H1, the precious metals industry achieved a total operating income of 148.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -8.94%. In 24Q2, revenue reached 79.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -8.35%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of +15.63%. In 2024H1, the precious metals industry achieved a net income attributable to the parent company of 5.822 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +62.59%. In 24Q2, the net income attributable to the parent company was 3.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +42.30%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of +27.88%. With the expected interest rate cut in Q2, coupled with geopolitical catalysts, the rising gold price continued to drive significant year-on-year profit growth for companies. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts with a 50 basis point cut, historically suggesting a high probability of rising precious metal prices in the six months after the rate cut; in addition, inflation may rise slightly after the rate cut, highlighting gold's inflation-resistant property, and there may still be further room for gold price increase, driving related company profit growth. Recommended focus: Zhaojin Mining (01818), Zijin Mining (601899.SH, 02899), SD Gold (600547.SH), Shandong Gold International (000975, SH), Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988.SH), Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), Zhongjin Gold Corp. (600489.SH), Chinagoldintl (02099).
Base Metals: Copper and aluminum prices surged, leading to high growth in the sector's performance.
1) Copper: With the rise in copper prices, companies generally performed well, leading to an increase in net income attributable to the parent company. The macro environment in 24H1 was volatile, with a sharp rise in copper prices due to factors such as continued tension in overseas copper mine supply, resonance between China-US PMI, and reinforced overseas interest rate cut expectations. By late May, COMEX copper futures staged a historic short squeeze. Subsequently, global PMI weakened, the transmission from the mining end to the smelting end requires time, leading smelters to maintain high production, and demand fell short of expectations, causing copper price fluctuations downward but with an overall upward shift in the central level. Recommended focus on Zijin Mining (601899.SH/02899.HK), CMOC Group Limited (603993.SH), JCHX Mining Management (603979.SH), Chinfmining (01258.HK), MMG (01208.HK).
2) Aluminum: Aluminum prices mainly fluctuated at high levels in 24H1, and market macro sentiment may be boosted. Prior to May, prices rose significantly due to global positive macro sentiment and relatively resilient fundamentals, before falling as macro sentiment declined, combined with inventory clearance falling short of expectations. Considering the constraints on electrolytic aluminum supply, supply and demand are expected to remain at a good level. Recommended focus on Chinahongqiao (01378), Tianshan Aluminum Group (002532.SZ), Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH), Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power (000933.SZ), Yunnan Aluminium (000807.SZ), Shandong Nanshan Aluminium (600219.SH).
Small metals: Antimony, tungsten, and tin continue to strengthen, with divergent corporate profit performance.
In H1 2024, revenue reached 220.568 billion yuan, down 1.61% year-on-year. In Q2 24, revenue reached 122.174 billion yuan, up 9.90% year-on-year, and up 24.17% quarter-on-quarter. In H1 2024, net income attributable to the parent company was 10.33 billion yuan, up 25.38% year-on-year. In Q2 24, net income attributable to the parent company was 6.622 billion yuan, up 94.87% year-on-year, and up 78.58% quarter-on-quarter.
1) Tin: Overseas tin ore supply remains disrupted, with Myanmar mines continuing to be shut down. Tin ore supply remains tight, leading to a continuous strengthening of tin prices, driving the profit growth of Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ) in Q2.
2) Tungsten: Environmental protection and safety inspections have tightened, with limited early operation of mines and smelters, but increased production later. The supply of raw materials is slightly tight due to limited production, with average performance in domestic and foreign end-consumer. Tungsten prices are expected to maintain a high level, with the potential for greater profit recovery in the terminal product sector. Companies like China Tungsten and High-Tech Materals (000657.SZ) are expected to see profits rise with the economic cycle.
3) Antimony: Q2 antimony ingots were affected by lower-than-expected foreign mines and domestic environmental inspections, leading to tight raw material supply. Prices continue to rise with a solid fundamental support and are expected to remain strong in the latter half of the year, providing profit support for Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH), and others. Recommended focus: Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), China Tungsten and High-Tech Materals (000657.SZ, Machinery Group Cover), Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), Zhuzhou Smelter Group (600961.SH).
Energy metals: Supply and demand patterns persist, with lithium companies under pressure on performance. Focus on relative bottom opportunities.
Q2 domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, driving material factory replenishment. Short-term mismatch in supply and demand, lithium salt prices slightly rebounded in Q2 compared to Q1. However, with the gradual resolution of environmental issues in Jiangxi and the resumption of enterprises, the lithium salt market experienced supply and demand imbalance again in June, following volatility in April-May and continued price declines. Profit-wise, Q2 lithium companies continue to be under pressure, with H1 24 lithium sector achieving a net loss of 3.71 billion yuan, of which Q2 net loss was 0.33 billion yuan, showing some improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis but still in losses. Expecting industry supply expectations in the coming years, the importance of enterprise cost and resource advantages will continue to be highlighted. Recommend focusing on Sinomine Resource Group (002738.SZ), Yongxing Special Materials Technology (002756.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. (002460.SZ), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Tengyuan Cobalt (301229.SZ), etc.
Rare earth magnetic materials: The negative factors in the first half of the year are gradually being digested, with supply and demand poised for accelerated improvement.
In the first half of the year, affected by the decline in rare earth prices, the industry's revenue and net income both declined significantly. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of the rare earth industry have shown obvious improvement. The supply side is mainly affected by the continuous positive impact of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" and the tightening of the second batch of indicators, combined with the weakening trend of overseas imports; on the demand side, the off-season has ended early, the magnetic material field has entered the traditional peak season in the second half of the year, and the industry's inventory was relatively low due to the previous price decline, leading to further demand for restocking, which will further drive up rare earth prices. Therefore, neodymium praseodymium oxide has risen from 0.379 million yuan per ton at the beginning of July to 0.419 million yuan per ton at the end of August, an increase of 11%. Moreover, there are still expectations for further improvement in the future. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity for bottom reversal. The adverse factors affecting upstream resources, such as impairment losses, have gradually been absorbed, and are expected to benefit from price increases; leading companies in the magnetic material field will also benefit from the rise in rare earth prices. They are currently at the lower end of the historical valuation and have certain performance flexibility. Recommended focuses: Rare Earth Resources: China Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), China Rare Earth (000831.SZ); Magnetic Materials: Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material (300224.SZ), JL Mag Rare-Earth (300748.SZ).
Metal New Materials: Significant improvement quarter-on-quarter in Q2, with the electronics materials sector showing an upward trend in prosperity.
Metal New Materials achieved a net income attributable to the parent company of 2.606 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%. In Q2 of 2024, it achieved a net income attributable to the parent company of 1.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.5%. The overall performance of the sector has improved significantly quarter-on-quarter, with the electronics materials segment showing an upward trend in prosperity. Recommendations to focus on: Poco Holding (300811.SZ), NBTM New Materials Group (600114.SH), Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock (605376.SH), Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock (300948.SZ), Yunnan Aluminium (688190.SH), Ningbo Boway Alloy Material (601137.SH), etc.
Risk warning: Systemic risks of global economic recession, risks of demand falling short of expectations, and risks of significant increases in upstream supply.
