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午间原油分析:中东动荡加剧,原油市场迎来新波澜?

Midday crude oil analysis: Intensifying turmoil in the Middle East, will the crude oil market usher in a new wave of unrest?

Golden10 Data ·  Sep 23 13:03

The tense situation in the Middle East has not improved... Argentina's crude oil production is expected to increase... How will the global market respond?

As of 12:00 Beijing time, the price of Brent crude oil November futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was $75.02 per barrel, up 53 cents from the settlement price on September 20, and the contract closed down 39 cents per barrel that day.

The price of Nymex crude oil November futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) was $71.55 per barrel, up 55 cents from the settlement price on September 20, and the contract closed down 16 cents per barrel that day.

On September 20, Israel stated that it had 'eliminated' a senior member of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia organization, in a recent airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, escalating tensions in the Middle East. This airstrike was the latest in a series of events that shook the Lebanese capital last week. On September 17, a series of deadly pager explosions occurred, followed by a second round of explosions targeting other wireless communication equipment (including radios) 24 hours later.

Despite the blockade imposed by the eastern Libyan authorities on oil fields and ports nearly a month ago, the country is still exporting crude oil. However, the significantly reduced loading volumes have led major European customers to seek alternative sources.

According to tracking data from Argus, Libya exported approximately 389,000 barrels per day of crude oil from September 1 to 19, a sharp decrease from 932,000 barrels per day in the same period in August. At that time, Libya's crude oil production was close to 1 million barrels per day and had not been affected by the blockade. Assuming Libya has retained some crude oil for domestic refining and power generation, current production may be close to 0.5 million barrels per day, higher than Argus's previous estimate of about 0.3 million barrels per day.

Argentina plans to increase global crude oil supply by 0.6 million barrels per day over the next decade, after decades of low investment and failed attempts. 'We are in a race with the world,' said Rolando Figuero, the governor of the oil-rich Neuquén Province in Argentina, seizing the market in front of the eventual decline in crude oil demand in other emerging markets. The most promising Vaca Muerta Basin in Argentina is located in this province.

The government estimates that production in just the Vaca Muerta field could increase from the current approximately 0.39 million barrels per day to over 1 million barrels per day by 2030. According to Figuero, only 33% of the Vaca Muerta area has been granted concessions, with only 8% currently in production. Argentina's total crude oil production in July was close to 0.683 million barrels per day, reaching a 20-year high, but the country only exported about 20% of this production.

(The above content is from Argus, an independent international energy and commodity price assessment agency)

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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