发展坚持实事求是，着眼长期稳中求进。目前白酒外部需求和中秋动销确实存在一定压力，但白酒需求仍具一定韧性，且公司表示今世缘产品实际动销仍好于竞品和公司内部悲观预期，后续公司会结合国庆白酒需求及自身情况，兼顾进取性和实际情况，保持快于行业整体的增长，坚持实事求是和高质量发展目标，稳中求进、好中求快，适度调整年度目标和明年发展规划。Matters:
On September 19, the opening ceremony of Jinshiyuan's 20,000 ton winemaking project was officially launched. The company took a solid step on the path of expanding production capacity and intelligent development. At the same time, the chairman of the company had a frank exchange on development goals, business strategies, product layout, etc. that the market is concerned about. We went to the conference. The core feedback was as follows:
Commentary:
Development insists on seeking truth from facts and focuses on long-term stability and progress. Currently, there is some pressure on external demand for liquor and sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival, but demand for liquor is still resilient, and the company said that the actual sales of current Shiyuan products are still better than competitors and pessimistic expectations within the company. Subsequent companies will combine National Day liquor demand and their own situation, maintain faster growth than the industry as a whole, adhere to realistic and high-quality development goals, and moderately adjust annual goals and next year's development plans.
Strategically, emphasis is placed on talent, brand building, and internal reforms, and continuing to strengthen deep cultivation within the province and cultivation outside the province. The company maintains its established strategy. The first focus of development is talent training, and all employees compete to take up jobs, so as to improve the elderly, attract talented people, reserve new ones, and have successors. The second is product brand building and promotion, focusing on improving the height and reputation of the Guoyuan brand. The third is to deepen reforms and stimulate activity. In terms of specific management tactics, the province is firmly invading the battlefield and deepening the layout. Outside the province, it is adhering to the quota system and building a key model market. Next year, it will continue to form 5 new key markets and form a second tier, maintain faster growth outside the province than within the province, and moderately consider opportunities for volume with a price of 100 yuan. Maintain cost investment, strengthen brand and market development, and enhance accurate investment.
In terms of product strategy, we are currently keeping the price versus opening volume. The new Guoyuan 2049 strategic product is about to be released to break the game upward.
On the product side, the company's strategy currently uses four branches as its image, the opposite branch is used as sales volume, and six branches are continuously being cultivated. If demand in the industry improves in the future, it can be flexibly adjusted to six units for image and four for sales volume. Looking at the medium to long term, the company's product strategy will continue to break through upward. It is believed that 600-800 yuan is the potential price band of Jiangsu and Yangtze River Delta in the future. It will soon release a new Guoyuan 2049 strategic product during the Shanghai Wine Fair, with a price tag of 1,599 yuan in the 1,000 yuan price band, give full play to its differentiated advantages of moderate aroma, strengthen the 1,000 yuan price band layout, and firmly target a higher level of layout, improve the product matrix, and enhance the brand image.
The company increased production capacity by 0.02 million tons to 0.06 million tons, strengthening intelligent brewing and long-term reserves. At the beginning of 2022, the company built an intelligent winemaking and storage center project in the South Plant area, which is expected to increase production capacity by 0.04 million tons. On September 19 this year, the company's 0.02 million ton winemaking project was officially launched, and the total production capacity was raised to 0.06 million tons. In addition, the company also plans to add 0.02 million tons of Qingya sauce production capacity. At that time, the total production capacity will reach 0.08 million tons, doubling production capacity. The company has greatly expanded production in recent years. The first is “intelligent transformation and digital transformation” to raise the level of intelligent brewing. The second is to prepare ahead for future competition in the middle and high-end liquor market to increase the production capacity of high-quality liquor. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the company plans to further increase the production capacity of raw wine to 0.1 million tons, and the storage capacity of pottery tanks to reach 0.6 million tons.
Investment advice: The share in the province is expected to continue to rise, the valuation is cost-effective, and the “strong” rating is maintained. Based on channel feedback, the company's current repayment progress is close to 90%, the batch price of the four-point control volume remains above 400 yuan. The group purchase channel's performance is relatively stable. The share of counterpart sales continues to rise. The overall business is still steady. The share in the province is expected to continue to increase, and there is strong certainty that the 20% + performance target will be achieved throughout the year. The current stock price is only 13 times the 24-year valuation, which has a certain cost performance advantage. We maintain the 24-26 EPS forecast value of 3.00/3.63/4.39 yuan, maintain a target price of 75 yuan, and maintain a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Consumption recovery is slowing, competition within the province is intensifying, and high-end and out-of-province layouts fall short of expectations.
