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绿的谐波(688017):新产品+新场景 引领机电一体行业发展

Green Harmonics (688017): New products+new scenarios lead the development of the mechatronics industry

huaan securities ·  Sep 22, 2024 00:00

Innovation drives development, dreams drive the future

The company is a high-tech enterprise specializing in R&D, design, production and sales of precision transmission devices. Its products include harmonic reducers, mechatronic actuators, precision parts and intelligent automation equipment, etc., which are widely used in high-end manufacturing fields such as intelligent robots, CNC machine tools, medical equipment, semiconductor production equipment, and new energy equipment. Since 2003, the company's core team has been engaged in research on the theoretical basis of precision harmonic speed reducers for robots, and was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2020.

Keep up with industry trends and lead the domestic replacement of harmonic speed reducers

After years of development, the company has gradually achieved import substitution for international brands (Hamanaco, Nabatesco, etc.) in the domestic market with advanced R&D technology, process level, and large-scale manufacturing capabilities, and has achieved a high market share and customer penetration rate, and has grown into a leading enterprise in the industry.

The company has passed ISO9001 and ISO14001 international quality system certifications, and is the main drafting unit for many national standards in the field of precision speed reducers in China. In order to further enhance the core competitiveness of the company's products, accelerate the domestic substitution process, and help the company's strategic layout, the company has developed and perfected core technologies such as next-generation harmonic meshing “P tooth” design theory system, next-generation third-harmonic technology, mechatronic coupling technology, bearing optimization, unique material modification technology, dental gallery training optimization technology, collaborative and efficient lubrication technology, and ultra-precision manufacturing and processing technology through independent innovation and independent research and development.

Grasp the development trend of intelligent robots and optimize iterative products

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots” in 2023, which clearly lays out a strategic roadmap for humanoid robots. By 2025, the humanoid robot innovation system was initially established, and breakthroughs were made in a number of key technologies such as “brain, cerebellum, and limb” to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components; by 2027, humanoid robot technology innovation capabilities will be significantly improved, forming a safe and reliable industrial chain and supply chain system, and building an internationally competitive industrial ecosystem.

In order to meet the new application requirements of intelligent robots such as high torque density, high rigidity and high dynamic response, the company has further iteratively improved the performance of harmonic reducers such as miniaturization, weight reduction, high torque, high load, and long life. Based on innovative technology research and development such as DNG impact-resistant long-life flexible bearings, a high-strength flexible wheel optimization, ultra-small damping harmonic reducer, etc., the company has developed a serialized ultra-long-life, ultra-lightweight and ultra-compact harmonic reducer. The accuracy maintenance life is at the leading international level, and has characteristics such as large load, high efficiency, and strong impact resistance. The company's harmonic reducer products have a full range of products covering the relevant needs of intelligent robot rotation modules.

Investment advice

We are optimistic about the downstream volume of the company's harmonic reducers and domestic replacement. We forecast revenue of 0.451/0.573/0.729 billion yuan in 2024-2026; 0.101/0.134/0.163 billion yuan in 2024-2026; and 0.60/0.134/0.163 billion yuan for 2024-2026; and 0.60/0.80/0.96 yuan for 2024-2026. The PE corresponding to the company's current stock price is 101/76/63 times, which is the first time it has been covered to give an “increase in wealth” investment rating.

Risk warning

1) Breakthroughs in technology research and development fall short of expectations; 2) downstream demand falls short of expectations; 3) loss of core technicians; 4) sharp fluctuations in raw material costs affect gross profit margins; 5) the risk of robot development falling short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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