According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs Global Markets Director Scott Rubner said that the US stock market is expected to rebound before the end of the year, but it will only rebound after experiencing unfavorable short-term situations such as technical positioning, capital flow, and pre-election anxiety. Last Friday, Scott Rubner stated in a client report, 'Tactically, I have a negative view towards the end of the quarter, but the target is for the S&P 500 index to rebound before the end of the year.'

Goldman Sachs' data shows that in the past two trading days ending on September 20, long positions decreased by approximately $6.1 billion, marking the third largest reduction since 2019. This means that Wall Street traders will not buy on the dip to maintain a neutral position in the market.

Scott Rubner also predicts that selling pressure will increase in the next month or so. He stated that October is usually when actively managedMutual fundsfunds prepare for the year-end by selling poorly performing positions and increasing exposure to investment-grade credit as retirement funds with ample cash reduce their stock exposure.

Scott Rubner stated that as the US presidential election approaches, institutional investors are selling favored long positions, buying S&P 500 put options spreads to hedge potential losses. He anticipates that more selling will come from hedge funds, which still have high risk exposure in the election, but typically reduce positions before the vote. More importantly, trend-following systematic funds are only bullish for the next five trading days, and commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are expected to sell $47 billion in US stocks next month if market sentiment turns negative.

Scott Rubner pointed out that as a result, recent trends will involve volatile trading, declining stock prices, and increased volatility. He believes that the situation will change after the election, and regardless of the winner, the S&P 500 index will experience year-end rebound driven by 'Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)', with the index rising to 6000 by the end of the year. He stated that investors may chase risk assets in November and December, reallocating cash in portfolios to stocks.

Scott Rubner stated that since 1900, the median return of the S&P 500 index in November and December of election years is 3.4%. He also predicts that once the dust settles on the election results, the breadth of the stock market will improve, with inflation-sensitive stocks, value stocks, energy stocks, and emerging market stocks outperforming the large cap market.