Hot news

• Trump said he would not run again if he fails in the 2024 usa presidential election.

According to CCTV, on September 22nd local time, the Republican presidential candidate and former president, Donald Trump, stated that if he fails to win the presidential election in November this year, he does not believe he will participate in the presidential election in 2028. Trump, born in 1946, is now 78 years old and will be 82 years old in the 2028 US presidential election. Prior to current US President Biden announcing his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential election, Trump often attacked Biden, who is now 81, on the issue of age.

• Federal Reserve President Powell supports a 50-basis-point interest rate cut to address low inflation.

Highly influential Federal Reserve Board member Bullard pointed out that inflation data, rather than concerns about the labor market, is the reason why he supports a 50-basis-point interest rate cut last week. The speed of inflation decline is much faster than he expected, which surprised him. Inflation data provides room for interest rate cuts. There may be multiple scenarios for future interest rates, and he would be more inclined to cut interest rates if the data starts to weaken and continues to weaken.

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 49%, and the probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points is 51%. The probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points by December is 25.6%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points is 50.0%; the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points is 24.4%.

• JPMorgan CEO Dimon: The possibility of a soft landing for the US economy is relatively low.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed doubts about the prospect of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in over four years and said he would not hold out too much hope for this outcome. He stated at an event last Friday, "I'm more skeptical than others about this. I think the probability of a soft landing is low. I hope it's true, but I have greater doubts about inflation easing so easily, not because inflation hasn't fallen - it has, and it may continue to do so."

• ECB President warns that the world economy is facing pressure similar to the Great Depression of the last century.

Two days after the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut pushed the US stock market to a historic high, the President of the European Central Bank warned that the global economy is facing pressures of "economic nationalism," global trade collapse, and a Great Depression similar to the 1920s.

Christine Lagarde pointed out in a speech at the International Monetary Fund in Washington last Friday: "We are facing the most serious pandemic since the 1920s, the most serious conflict in Europe since the 1940s, and the most serious energy shock since the 1970s." She also added that these disruptions, along with supply chain issues and other factors, have permanently altered global economic activity.

• Barclays: Don't go against the Federal Reserve, the opportunity for cyclical stocks has arrived.

The Fed cut interest rates significantly by 50 basis points, triggering the global market last week. Apart from U.S. bonds, almost all assets saw a sharp rise. Barclays believes that the significant rate cut will help the U.S. economy achieve a soft landing. In this situation, investors should not go against the Fed and should avoid shorting cyclical stocks.

The report indicates that the Fed's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut to support economic growth demonstrates its commitment to achieving a soft landing. The market has reacted positively to this policy adjustment, with prices of risk assets rising and the bearish yield curve steepening, indicating investor alignment with the Fed's goals.

• Gold continues to reach new highs, Analyst: Gold price may not reach $3000 this year, but still has long-term potential.

Fawad Razaqzada, senior analyst at Jia Shen Group, said: "Gold has broken through the $2600 mark, and it is expected that gold will soon experience some profit-taking, but I still have a moderate bullish view on the gold trend for the rest of this year. Although gold may not reach the milestone of $3000 this year, due to the expected accelerated interest rate cuts by major central banks like the Fed, ongoing geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases and other factors, I believe this long-term target still has hope. Geopolitical drivers may be more important than interest rate cuts."

• Massive strike at the port imminent, US supply chain faces major threat.

According to the Financial Times, companies at over thirty ports in the United States are preparing for a strike, which could disrupt the supply chain and drive up prices. The International Longshoremen's Association stated that if the union cannot reach a new agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents carriers and marine terminal operators, before the contract expires on September 30, 0.025 million union members will go on strike. The contract covers all ports between Maine and Texas, including New York, Savannah, Houston, Miami, and New Orleans. An alliance of 177 trade organizations warned last week that these ports account for 41% of US port throughput, and closing them would have a 'devastating impact' on the US economy.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• Dow rises to a new all-time high, intense volatility at the close of Triple-Witching Day.

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones reaching a new record high. A large number of derivative contracts related to stocks, index options, and futures contracts are set to expire on the "Triple Witching Day", and the index experienced sharp fluctuations in the closing session.

At the close, the Dow rose by 0.09%, reaching a new high and accumulated a 1.61% increase last week; the S&P 500 index fell by 0.19%, with a 1.36% increase last week; the Nasdaq fell by 0.36%, with a 1.49% increase last week.

大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉跌超2%，英伟达跌超1%，苹果、奈飞、微软小幅下跌；谷歌、亚马逊、Meta小幅上涨。

• Qualcomm and Intel have recently been in talks and are expected to reach a merger agreement. Intel saw a significant increase of 9% in the closing session.

据路透社高通首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺.阿蒙（Cristiano Amon）亲自参与了收购英特尔的谈判，研究交易的各种选择。文章同时指出，高通与英特尔的谈判还处于早期阶段，高通尚未对英特尔提出正式报价。对于收购传闻，英特尔和高通的代表拒绝置评。消息传出，英特尔股价尾盘大幅拉升,一度涨幅扩大至9%,最终收涨3.3%。

此外，另类投资巨头阿波罗提议向英特尔投资数十亿美元。最近数日，阿波罗暗示称，该公司愿意按股权类投资方式向英特尔注资高达5 billion美元。这可能会成为对英特尔“翻身仗”的信任票。

• iPhone 16上市日，苹果股价交易量迅速跃升至全球第一

Last Friday, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The trading volume at the last point of the stock reached 0.11 billion shares, with a turnover exceeding $25 billion, and the total trading volume for the day reached $72.953 billion, finally closing down 0.29%. It is worth noting that such a large volume of sales is obviously not driven by ordinary investors, and the future direction of the market still needs to be observed continuously.

According to the analysis of Dow Jones Market Data Team, Apple's stock has shown a certain trend over the 17 years since the release of the iPhone. On the day of the new iPhone release, the stock price averaged a 0.1% decline; and on the listing day, the stock price fell another 0.1%. In the subsequent week, Apple's performance was slightly worse than the overall market. However, in the long run, six months after the iPhone was released, Apple's stock averaged a return rate of 11.7%, exceeding the S&P 500 index by 8 percentage points.

• Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung are considering building chip factories in the United Arab Emirates, with a value exceeding $100 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ and samsung have discussed the possibility of building a chip project in the UAE over the next few years, with a project size that may exceed $100 billion. Recently, executives of TSMC have visited the UAE. At that time, the UAE is expected to become one of the AI investment centers in the Middle East. Samsung has also sent representatives to the UAE to discuss the possibility of building large-scale operations in the country. The relevant negotiations are still in the preliminary stages.

• It is reported that the Cybertruck has been 'remotely disabled', and Kaderoff has dispatched two more vehicles to the front line.

Russian Chechen Republic leader Kadyrov accused $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ CEO Musk "remotely disabled" his Cybertruck and said the electric pickup truck had originally been sent to the front line and performed well. Kaderov claimed on Thursday that the machine gun-equipped Cybertruck he showcased in August had been remotely locked and rendered unusable, but the vehicle performed well in combat. By last Friday, Kaderov added that he had sent two more Tesla Cybertrucks to the front line, and these two vehicles were not affected and could still operate normally. He did not provide detailed information on the source of the two Cybertrucks in the video.

• Google faces the European Union's final warning, and could be heavily fined if it does not adjust its search engine business model

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ Expected to face another blow from EU regulators if the company does not quickly take action to give competitors more room for development, it may face hefty fines and be ordered to change its business model. EU officials are preparing a formal charge against Google under the Digital Markets Act, focusing on how Google displays competitor's product results in different search services (such as Google Flights and Google Hotels). If the regulations are not followed, Google could face fines of up to 10% of its global annual revenue. Sources say that the EU's preliminary investigation results may be released before the end of October, but with the impending reorganization of the EU Commission's leadership, the meeting time may be delayed. Google still has time to address the concerns of the EU authorities. The final ruling on this case will be made by the end of March next year.

• Boeing Defense Department chief resigns, new CEO initiates major reorganization

$Boeing (BA.US)$ The company has dismissed the heads of the Defense and Space departments, marking the first major restructuring since Kelly Ortberg took over as CEO last month. Ortberg wrote to employees last Friday, announcing that Ted Colbert, who had been working at Boeing for 15 years, will leave immediately and Steve Parker, the Chief Operating Officer of the Defense department, will temporarily take over. The Defense department, which has had a stable financial performance, has overspent billions of dollars on fixed-price contracts such as the KC-46 air refueling aircraft and the replacement of Air Force One, the U.S. President's plane.

Negative news about the Starliner spacecraft has impacted Boeing, as NASA believes it is too risky to use it to bring two astronauts back from the International Space Station. This will result in the astronauts being stranded in space until early next year, far beyond the original plan. Just a week ago, Boeing's CFO, Brian West, stated at an investor conference that the defense department is expected to drag down third-quarter performance again, with performance likely to approach the $1 billion operating loss of the previous quarter.

• FDA approves AstraZeneca's FluMist vaccine.

The U.S. FDA has approved $AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$ its needle-free nasal spray FluMist for the prevention of flu caused by Type A and B influenza viruses in the 2-49 age group. FluMist becomes the first flu vaccine that eligible patients can self-administer or have a caregiver administer. The vaccine, initially approved in the U.S. in 2003 for children and adults aged 5-49, has set an important precedent for the development of nasal spray vaccines, demonstrating the protective effect of mucosal immune response.

Top 20 US stock transactions

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Temasek buying Alibaba again for 3.811 billion Hong Kong dollars

On September 20th (Friday), the southbound funds net bought 3.399 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of Hong Kong stocks.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$and$HKEX (00388.HK)$N/A.$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$Received net purchases of 3.811 billion HKD, 0.377 billion HKD, 0.289 billion HKD respectively;

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$and$CCB (00939.HK)$ Encountered net sales of 1.183 billion HKD, 1.047 billion HKD, 0.347 billion HKD respectively.

• HKEX officially implements trading in adverse weather conditions.

9月23日， $HKEX (00388.HK)$ 将正式落实恶劣天气下维持市场运作的安排。目前，港交所官网上，有关恶劣天气的交易安排已经更新，显示为“若香港天文台悬挂八号或以上台风信号或发出黑色暴雨警告， 又或香港政府作出‘极端情况’公布时，证券市场及衍生产品市场的所有产品均会维持交易服务及营运。若上述恶劣天气发生于沪深股通交易日，沪深股通的交易亦会继续进行”。

• Sinopec SEG signed an EPC contract for the Silleno ethane cracking project in Kazakhstan.

$SINOPEC SEG (02386.HK)$ 集团与西班牙Tecnicas Reunidas公司于近日就哈萨克斯坦Silleno石化综合体项目之乙烷裂解项目与哈萨克斯坦Silleno LLP公司签订了EPC工程总承包合同。该合同价值约2.5 billion美元，集团与TR公司在联合体中份额各占50%。该合同总价值将计为集团未完成合同量。

• 华夏大悦城商业REITListed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since September 20th.

$JOY CITY PPT (00207.HK)$ The Huaxia Joy City shopping center closed-end infrastructure real estate investment trust (REIT) is listed separately on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. According to the announcement, the REIT raised 1 billion shares at a final offering price of CNY 3.323 per share. The total amount raised from the separate listing is approximately CNY 3.323 billion, and the company expects a net amount of approximately CNY 1.66 billion.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Japanese stock market closed

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the preliminary September Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone and the preliminary September S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI for the U.S. will be released.

In terms of financial events, in 2024, FOMC voting committee members and the President of the Atlanta Fed, Bostic, will give a speech on the economic outlook; in 2025, FOMC voting committee members and the President of the Chicago Fed, Evans, will participate in a fireside chat.

In addition, the Japanese stock market will be closed for one day due to the Autumnal Equinox Day.

Futubull Morning News:

Stocks will never be too high to start buying, nor too low to start selling.

-Andre Costolani

Editor/Rocky