DocuSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:DOCU) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last quarter. But that is meagre solace in the face of the shocking decline over three years. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 79%. So it sure is nice to see a bit of an improvement. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
DocuSign became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 14% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching DocuSign more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
DocuSign is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for DocuSign in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that DocuSign shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 40% over the last year. That certainly beats the loss of about 0.9% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for DocuSign that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.