Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Currently, there are about 100 companies queuing up to list in Hong Kong, many of which are applying for fundraising of 1 billion US dollars.
On September 22nd, Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, published a blog post on the official website titled "Expansion of New Opportunities in Cooperation". The article states that the atmosphere in the Hong Kong stock market is gradually improving, and the new stock market is also gradually warming up. The fundraising amount for IPOs in Hong Kong this year has exceeded the full-year total of last year and has risen to fourth place globally. Currently, about 100 companies are queuing up for listing in Hong Kong. The subsequent financing activities of listed companies are also active, and they have raised more than 20 billion US dollars in funds this year. In addition, Hong Kong has continued to record a net inflow of funds. In just the first seven months of this year, the total deposits in banks has increased by about 4% to 16.8 trillion yuan compared to the end of last year.
The full text of the blog is as follows:
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a basis point last week, the first rate cut in over four years. In addition, many major central banks around the world have also cut interest rates, strengthening the expectation of a gradual decline in global interest rates. The loose financial environment also benefits the atmosphere of the asset market and the business environment. Although under the linked exchange rate system, it can be expected that the future trend of interest rates in Hong Kong will be similar to that of the US, but the speed and extent of the rate cut will depend on the local capital flow and market conditions. The Hong Kong stock market has risen to a two-month high, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 18,258 points last Friday, accumulating a continuous increase of nearly 7% over the past six trading days. Trading volume has also improved, with a turnover of 176.8 billion yuan last Friday, the highest level in nearly four months.
The atmosphere in the stock market is gradually improving, and the new stock market is also gradually warming up. Last week, a large-scale new stock was listed, with a fundraising amount of 31 billion yuan, making it the second-largest new stock in the world this year. Including this new stock, the fundraising amount for IPOs in Hong Kong this year has exceeded the full-year total of last year and has risen to fourth place globally. Currently, about 100 companies are queuing up for listing in Hong Kong, many of which are applying for fundraising of 1 billion US dollars. In addition to the new stock market, the subsequent financing activities of listed companies are also active, and they have raised more than 20 billion US dollars this year.
In fact, Hong Kong has continued to record a net inflow of funds. In just the first seven months of this year, the total deposits in banks have increased by about 4% to 16.8 trillion yuan compared to the end of last year. Against the backdrop of a gradually improving investment risk appetite and investors chasing higher returns, we need to further promote the Hong Kong market to open up broader and more diversified sources of funding.
Following the listing of the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking Saudi Arabian stocks in the Asia-Pacific region at the end of last year, the Saudi Capital Market Authority recently announced that it has approved the first ETF that invests in Hong Kong stocks, which will be listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange. This will allow local as well as Middle Eastern funds to more easily and directly invest in Hong Kong-listed stocks. This move will also help deepen the understanding of local investors in Hong Kong stocks. At the end of next month, I will lead a delegation to visit the Middle East, hoping to promote deeper and broader exchanges and cooperation in various fields.
We will continue to strengthen the promotion in both traditional and emerging markets, and promote more cooperation. We believe that with the decline in interest rates, we will be able to leverage funds from different markets to inject new power into the capital market of Hong Kong.
I set off for Europe for investment promotion in the early hours of this morning, visiting Madrid in Spain and London in the United Kingdom. In addition to meeting with local representatives of the political and business sectors and visiting companies, I will also attend a series of luncheons and roundtable meetings to promote the advantages of Hong Kong. We have specially arranged a delegation of local startups from Hong Kong to participate in this overseas visit, engaging in discussions and negotiations with local technology innovation institutions and venture capital funds, hoping to open up more cooperation opportunities.
Exchange activities within or across industries, whether overseas or in the Mainland, often promote deeper mutual understanding, inspire new thinking, and bring about collaboration opportunities. The 27th 'Beijing-Hong Kong Economic Cooperation Symposium and Hong Kong Investment Promotion Conference' held in Beijing recently received a very enthusiastic response. The conference also held signing ceremonies for multiple key cooperation projects between Beijing and Hong Kong, covering finance, technology, intelligent manufacturing, and many other fields. This conference facilitated approximately 170 two-way investment projects, with a total investment of around 42 billion RMB.
Hong Kong actively promotes technological innovation, encourages entrepreneurship, and fully promotes inter-industry cooperation. We hope to seize the vast opportunities brought about by technological changes, cultivate more entrepreneurs with ideals, diligence, and execution capabilities, and encourage more companies to innovate and explore, bringing more new products and services to customers and consumers, thus opening up more new business space. This will be one of the key factors in adding vitality and momentum to Hong Kong's economy.
Editor / jayden