根据“最懂苹果”分析师、天风国际证券分析师郭明錤周一公布的报告，iPhone 16系列在首周末预购销量预估约3700万部，较去年iPhone 15系列首周末销量同比减少约12.7%，关键在于16 Pro销量低于预期。巴克莱、摩根大通和美银也指出，运输时间可能意味着对iPhone Pro型号的需求较去年有所减少。Source: Wall Street See
According to Guo Minghao's previous report, the first weekend pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 series decreased by 12.7% compared to the 15 series. However, UBS Group pointed out that these data were obtained by analyzing the waiting time for the iPhone 16, and part of the reason for the longer waiting time last year was supply chain interruption.
After the seven-day pre-sale period ended, on September 20th, Apple officially launched the iPhone 16 series globally. However, the reaction in the terminal market has disappointed Wall Street.
According to the report released by Apple analyst Guo Mingji of Tianfeng International Securities on Monday, the estimated pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend is about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year, and the key is that the sales of the 16 Pro are lower than expected. Barclays, JPMorgan, and Bank of America also pointed out that the transportation time may indicate a decrease in demand for the iPhone Pro models compared to last year.
After Guo Mingji's report was released, Apple's stock price fell on Monday, despite a temporary boost from the significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it continued to decline on Friday.
At the same time, Apple stores welcomed customers from around the world on Friday. CNBC reporter Steve Kovach interviewed Apple CEO Tim Cook outside the Apple Fifth Avenue store in New York and asked if this year's sales were better than last year. Cook responded,
I don't know yet. It's only the first hour, so we'll see.
Regarding market reaction, UBS Group believes that investors should not be overly pessimistic about sales data that is lower than expected, because these data were obtained by analyzing the waiting time for the iPhone 16, and part of the reason for the longer waiting time last year was supply chain interruptions.
On Friday, UBS Group wrote in a report:
Before the release of the iPhone 16 series, we believe that the series lacks killer applications and that the embedded Apple smart features are only half-finished, which may suppress end demand.
Although we still believe that the features of the iPhone and iOS system are more progressive than revolutionary, we warn investors not to overreact to data reflecting initial weak demand.
UBS stated that last year's supply chain disruptions slightly distorted sales data, resulting in longer waiting times for customers for the Pro models. It is reported that the waiting time for last year's iPhone 15 Pro Max was 41 days, while this year's iPhone 16 Pro Max has a waiting time of 26 days.
Nevertheless, the data from all models and regions after about a week of release broadly support our view that the supercycle will not immediately arrive, as sales in major markets such as the United States have been disappointing compared to last year.
Editor / jayden