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郭明錤:高通应该没有强烈动机去并购英特尔

Guo Mingji: Qualcomm should not have a strong motivation to acquire Intel.

Global market report. ·  Sep 22 14:59

Source: Global Market Report On Monday, the turnover of US stocks ranked first, closing up 0.75% with a turnover of $38.014 billion. Since the opening on June 10, Nvidia's stock has been trading at adjusted prices after the split. The overall value of Nvidia is not expected to change after the split, and the lower stock price will make it easier for investors to reach. In terms of product structure, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products is respectively 401/1288/60 million yuan.

Renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities shared his views on the rumor of Qualcomm seeking to acquire Intel on the social platform X today.MergerIntel only benefits from Qualcomm's AI PC chip business, but given Microsoft's commitment to Windows on ARM (its latest Surface models all use Qualcomm processors/ARM architecture), Qualcomm's growth in the PC market is only a matter of time.

Kuo also pointed out that considering Intel's market cap of about $93 billion, this merger would put significant financial pressure on Qualcomm and immediately impact its profitability, with the net margin possibly dropping from over 20% to single digits or even losses (with the chipset foundry business being the biggest burden).

Kuo stated that given the anticipated antitrust investigations in various countries, this acquisition is unlikely to be completed in the short term. Therefore, it seems that Qualcomm may not have a strong motive to acquire Intel. If this acquisition were to happen, it could be considered a disaster for Qualcomm.

The following is the original content by Ming-Chi Kuo:

Qualcomm's current top priority is to establish competitiveness in AI chips.

1. Device-side AI smartphone chips: Qualcomm has a strong advantage in this area and is Apple's biggest competitor.

2. Device-side AI PC chips: As WoA (Windows on ARM) gradually improves, Qualcomm's advantage will become increasingly evident.

3. AI server chips: qualcomm's weakness.

In the face of the AI era, the best strategy for qualcomm is to quickly realize the mobile AI chip through smartphones, continuously promote PC AI chips, and simultaneously build an ecological advantage in the device end (mobile + PC) AI, and quickly strengthen the advantage of server AI chips through investment and acquisitions.

Acquiring Intel would only be beneficial to qualcomm's AI PC chip business. But based on Microsoft's commitment to Windows on ARM (its latest Surface models all use Qualcomm processors / ARM architecture), qualcomm's growth in the PC market is just a matter of time. Acquiring Intel could rapidly expand qualcomm's PC market share, but at a significant cost, and even without this acquisition, qualcomm can grow in the AI PC market based on its own strength.

Intel's dominant position in the general server market has limited appeal to qualcomm. AI servers are the future stars of the server market, and coincidentally, AI servers are also Intel's current weakness.

Qualcomm has approximately $13 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, with a market cap of about $190 billion. Even ignoring the premium, derivative costs, debt burden, and subsequent management costs brought about by the acquisition, just looking at Intel's market cap of about $93 billion, this acquisition would put immense financial pressure on Qualcomm and could immediately impact profitability, with the net margin possibly dropping from the current 20%+ to single digits or even losses (wafer foundry business is the biggest burden).

Qualcomm's latest quarter capital expenditure is about $0.39 billion. Using the funds to acquire Intel (estimated to be over $100 billion) to expand capital expenditure for the growth of AI PC and AI servers would be lower risk and more efficient in management.

Considering the antitrust investigations to come in various countries, it will be difficult to complete this acquisition in the short term. Even if Qualcomm were to sell some of Intel's assets to reduce the financial and management pressure brought about by the acquisition, this would not be a decision made in the short term. The uncertainties mentioned above during the acquisition process are very unfavorable to the trading atmosphere of Qualcomm's stock.

Therefore, it seems that Qualcomm has no strong motivation to acquire Intel. If this acquisition were to happen, it would be a disaster for Qualcomm. Based on my investigation and understanding, within Qualcomm's internal discussions, there is a negative attitude towards acquiring Intel. In this way, a rumor I heard may be correct, that Qualcomm is cautiously and passively evaluating the feasibility of acquiring Intel due to certain "uncontrollable external pressure factors."

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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