This week's important schedule overview

• The Federal Reserve's 'quiet period' is over, and Powell and other officials are expected to speak intensively.

As the Federal Reserve's 'quiet period' comes to an end, several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to give speeches. With the decline in inflation, guiding a 'soft landing' for the US economy has become the Fed's main goal. However, this rate cut also leaves many questions: what level will the interest rate be lowered to, where could the neutral interest rate be, and how fast will the rate cut be? This week, including Powell and other Federal Reserve officials, will speak intensively, which may provide some clues.

Monday: In 2024, FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech on the economic outlook; In 2025, FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Gülsünbay participates in a fireside chat.

Tuesday: In 2026, FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari gives a speech.

Thursday: Boston Fed President Collins hosts an online conference on central bank regulation and financial inclusion, with Fed Governor Kuggler in attendance; Fed Chair Powell pre-records a video for an event opening; FOMC Permanent Voter, New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; Fed Governor Barkin gives a speech; US Treasury Secretary Yellen delivers a speech.

Friday: In 2026, FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari has a fireside chat with Fed Governor Barkin; In 2025, FOMC voter, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Kuggler deliver speeches.

Analysts generally believe that if Federal Reserve officials suppress market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November, the US dollar may rebound and put pressure on the gold market. However, if Federal Reserve officials maintain an open attitude towards a 50 basis point rate cut at the November meeting, the US dollar will further decline, driving the strength of gold and non-US currencies.

• The PCE data, which is the most favored inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, is coming!

In addition to speeches by Federal Reserve officials, a series of data will be released in the new week, including the final value of the US GDP for the second quarter, and the final value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September. Among them, the most noteworthy will be the US personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) for August, which is the most favored inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve. Although the rate cut in November is already certain, PCE inflation may affect the magnitude of the rate cut and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

Currently, analysts generally expect the month-on-month growth rate of the US core PCE price index for August to remain at 0.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate to rebound slightly from 2.6% last month to 2.7%.

At the same time, the market expects that the month-on-month growth rate of personal consumption expenditure in August may slow from 0.5% last month to 0.3%. If personal consumption expenditure meets expectations or further eases market concerns about the US economy entering a recession, it may also affect the hopes of the Federal Reserve for a significant interest rate cut in November.

According to a recent report by Bank of America, if the core PCE month-on-month growth rate exceeds 0.3%, it may boost the US dollar, while weak data may immediately put pressure on the US dollar. However, Bank of America also stated that the importance of next week's inflation data may be less than before, as the Federal Reserve has emphasized its focus on the health of the US labor market.

• Micron Technology, Costco, and other companies have released their latest quarterly reports.

In terms of financial reports, the key areas to focus on are:$Micron Technology (MU.US)$N/A.$Costco (COST.US)$N/A.$Cintas (CTAS.US)$N/A.$AutoZone (AZO.US)$and $BlackBerry (BB.US)$A new round of financial reporting season will begin next month.

Micron Technology will release its financial report on September 25th, Eastern Time, with institutions expecting a projected revenue of $7.639 billion for Q4 2024, a 90.49% year-on-year increase; expected EPS of $0.76, reversing the loss to profit.

Micron Technology's third-quarter revenue was $6.81 billion, an 81.6% increase year-on-year from $3.75 billion in the same period last year, higher than analysts' expectations of $6.67 billion and higher than the previous quarter's revenue of $5.82 billion. Micron Technology expects that the adjusted revenue range for the fourth quarter ending in August will be $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion; the adjusted EPS is expected to be $1.08 per share, plus or minus $0.08; and the adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be 33.5% to 35.5%.

• China's MLF will be renewed in September.

On Wednesday, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 591 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) renewal. The People's Bank of China announced that on September 18, the central bank conducted 568.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in a fixed-rate, quantity-based bidding method, with the winning bid rate at 1.70%, consistent with the previous level. In addition, the 591 billion yuan MLF maturing on the same day will be renewed on September 25.

Following the first 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in four years, the China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in September remained unchanged. Analysis from Minsheng Securities' Tao Chuan team indicated that overseas rate cuts are a "necessary but not sufficient" condition for domestic loose monetary policy, and history shows that the pace of domestic loose monetary policy easing may be slightly slower than that overseas. It is expected that the reduction in required reserve ratio, reduction in reverse repurchase/MLF rates may take the lead, followed closely by adjustments in existing mortgage rates, with the LPR cut and existing mortgage rate adjustments in the year not overlapping.

• Reserve Bank of Australia and Swiss National Bank announce interest rate decisions

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bloch will hold a press conference on monetary policy. While the global market is enjoying the joy of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, RBA Governor Bloch is facing the situation of having to sell a hawkish story next week. Australia's strong job market and persistently high core inflation mean that the RBA will continue to exercise caution.

Adam Boyton, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank, said that the RBA may consider keeping rates unchanged or hiking, and will retain much of the hawkish rhetoric from the August meeting and subsequent communications. Boyton said the RBA is planning to cut rates in February next year, but the current risks lean towards further delaying the rate cut.

On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision. The 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased the possibility of Swiss National Bank officials following suit. Sebastien Gyger, Chief Investment Officer at Swiss Bank, said that the question now facing the Swiss National Bank is no longer whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or keep them unchanged, but whether to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

• The Japanese stock market is closed on Monday. The ruling party's general election of the Liberal Democratic Party will start on Friday.

On Monday, the Japanese stock market will be closed for one day due to the Autumnal Equinox Day.

On Friday, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will hold a presidential election, and the new president will succeed Fumio Kishida as the Prime Minister of Japan. According to the results of opinion polls, the most popular candidates for the new party leader include former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, current Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and current Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono.

The voting will be held on the 27th, and the counting of votes will also take place on the same day. The media predicts that it is highly likely that no candidate will receive a majority of votes in the first round of the election. The outcome of the second round will depend on which candidate can garner more support from members of the National Diet. In previous elections, there have been instances of a turnaround in the second round based on gaining greater support from members of the National Diet.

This week's key performance calendar

September 23, Monday.

Keywords: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Japanese stock market closed

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the preliminary September Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone and the preliminary September S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI for the U.S. will be released.

In terms of financial events, in 2024, FOMC voting committee members and the President of the Atlanta Fed, Bostic, will give a speech on the economic outlook; in 2025, FOMC voting committee members and the President of the Chicago Fed, Evans, will participate in a fireside chat.

In addition, the Japanese stock market will be closed for one day due to the Autumnal Equinox Day.

September 24, Tuesday

Keywords: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; Australian Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

In terms of financial data, the July FHFA House Price Index MoM for the U.S., the July S&P/CS20-City Composite House Price Index YoY for the U.S., the September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for the U.S., and the September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for the U.S. will be released.

In terms of financial events, in 2026, FOMC voting committee members and the President of the Minneapolis Fed, Kashkari, will give a speech. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Lowe, will hold a press conference on monetary policy.

In terms of financial reports,$AutoZone (AZO.US)$ it will be released before the US stock market opens.

Wednesday, September 25th

Keywords: Micron Technology financial report; US New Home Sales Annualized

In terms of financial data, the U.S. will continue to release API crude oil inventory for the week ending September 20th, U.S. August new home sales annualized, and EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 20th.

In terms of financial events, the People's Bank of China will carry out a 591 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) continuation; the Swedish central bank will announce its interest rate decision.

Regarding financial reports,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Cintas (CTAS.US)$ Will announce its performance today. $Jefferies Financial (JEF.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

Thursday, September 26th

Keywords: Final US Q2 GDP Annualized QoQ; Initial Jobless Claims; Powell Speech

In terms of financial data, the initial jobless claims in the United States until September 21st, the final value of the annualized seasonally adjusted GDP for the second quarter/real personal consumption expenditures seasonally adjusted annual rate/final Core PCE Price Index annualized seasonally adjusted rate, and the August durable goods orders rate, and the August pending home sales index rate will be released successively.

In terms of financial events, Boston Fed President Collins chaired an online meeting on central bank regulation and financial inclusion, with Fed Governor Quarles in attendance; Fed Chairman Powell recorded a video in advance for an opening speech at an event; FOMC permanent voters and New York Fed President Williams delivered speeches; Fed Governor Brainard delivered a speech.

In addition, the Swiss National Bank will announce the interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and Banking Supervision Committee Chairman Buch will deliver speeches.

In terms of financial reports, $Accenture (ACN.US)$ Will release financial report ahead of the U.S. pre-market trading, $Costco (COST.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$BlackBerry (BB.US)$ Will announce financial report after the U.S. post-market trading.

September 27, Friday.

Keyword: US Core PCE Price Index.

In terms of financial data, the US Core PCE Price Index for August will be released; the US Personal Income Month-on-Month Rate for August, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation for September, the Industrial Confidence Index for September in the Eurozone, and the Economic Sentiment Index for September in the Eurozone will be announced successively.

In terms of financial events, the 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, will have a fireside chat with Fed Governor Brainard; the 2025 FOMC voting member, Boston Fed President Collins, and Fed Governor Quarles will give speeches.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor / jayden