The 9F Inc. (NASDAQ:JFU) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 55% share price decline.
Following the heavy fall in price, 9F's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the Interactive Media and Services industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 1.3x and even P/S above 4x are quite common. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How 9F Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at 9F over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the disappointing revenue performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/S. Those who are bullish on 9F will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on 9F's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For 9F?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, 9F would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 27%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 67% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this in mind, we understand why 9F's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.
What Does 9F's P/S Mean For Investors?
9F's recently weak share price has pulled its P/S back below other Interactive Media and Services companies. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of 9F confirms that the company's shrinking revenue over the past medium-term is a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, given the industry is projected to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that the share price will experience any significant movement in either direction in the near future if recent medium-term revenue trends persist.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with 9F (at least 2 which can't be ignored), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.