According to the Zhitong Finance App, people had hoped that the large exports from Asia's major coffee-producing countries would alleviate the pressure of the strong rise in Robusta coffee prices, but this hope is quickly being dashed. Vietnam, which produces about one-third of the world's coffee supply, is mainly used for instant beverages and coffee blends, but the country's coffee-growing regions have been severely affected by drought and heavy rain before the October harvest season.

Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association in Dak Lak province, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing province, said that extreme weather conditions and a reduction in the area of coffee plantations will result in a 10% to 15% decrease in the country's harvest this season.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, Robusta coffee will account for over 95% of Vietnam's coffee production in the next season.

Instant coffee and takeaway coffee are becoming increasingly popular, and with the climate impacting the supply, the price of Robusta coffee has more than doubled in the past year. Now, Robusta coffee is almost as expensive as premium Arabica coffee, which has also seen a significant price increase. Volcafe Ltd., a major coffee trader, expects a severe shortage of global Robusta coffee from the 2024/25 season starting in October, marking the fourth consecutive year of shortages.

The price of Robusta coffee has significantly increased over the past year.

Robusta coffee from Indonesia accounts for approximately 10% of the global supply, and the continuous growth in domestic demand in the country has limited its coffee exports to the global market.

Moelyono Soesilo, the head of downstream coffee at the Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industrial Association, said that this year's production may reach 10 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), an increase of 14% compared to 2023. However, he stated that due to the surge in domestic consumption in Indonesia, the export volume may stabilize at around 0.25 million metric tons.

Robusta coffee may continue to gain market share because it is more resistant to high temperatures and diseases compared to Arabica coffee, although both types of coffee beans still face serious climate risks. This is bad news for coffee drinkers worldwide, as it seems that they will face a period of rising coffee prices.

Daryl Kryst, Assistant Vice President of Commodity Execution and Sales at StoneX, a global commodity brokerage firm, said that the ongoing rainfall means that Vietnam's coffee exports, which usually begin in early November, will be delayed until early December or even later. "We do expect (Robusta) coffee prices to come down, but that may not be seen until early next year."