Federal Reserve officials spoke in succession, as investors tried to capture the future direction of monetary policy. Fed Board Member Bowman dissented from a 50 basis point rate cut by the FOMC, warning that a significant rate cut could be interpreted by the market as a victory for the Fed in combating high inflation.

Meanwhile, Fed Board Member Waller said that if the labor market deteriorates, a 50 basis point rate cut may be considered. Philadelphia Fed President Harker, a voting member in 2026, said there are risks of inflation slowing and the labor market further weakening.

Samuel, the whistle-blower of U.S. inflation, and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, said investors have overestimated the Fed's future easing. Bank of America said that after the Fed indicated it is more concerned about the weakness in the U.S. job market, the importance of next week's PCE inflation may not be as high as before. The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction by the end of March 2025, three months later than previously predicted.

Despite a year-on-year rise of 2.8% in core CPI in August, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, the Bank of Japan decided to pause its rate hikes and kept the policy rate at 0.25%. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda did not show an eagerness to raise interest rates, causing the yen to fall more than 1% and briefly dip below 144.

U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with only the Dow Jones narrowly closing at a new high, and the S&P briefly turned positive in the final minutes. Small-cap stocks fell 1.1%, leading the decline in the seventh consecutive rise, with the industrial, materials, and technology sectors underperforming. In the technology sector, Qualcomm's offer to acquire Intel caused Intel to surge nearly 9.5% during trading. The utilities sector performed well, rising 2.6% to a historical closing high. The rally was driven by Constellation Energy's surge of 22% to a new high as it plans to restart the Three Mile nuclear power plant and sell electricity to Microsoft to support data centers.

The three major US stock indices only saw a slight increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average: the S&P 500 index fell 11.09 points, or 0.19%, to 5702.55. The Dow Jones, which is closely related to the economic cycle, rose 38.17 points, or 0.09%, to 42063.36. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 65.66 points, or 0.36%, to 17948.32. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, fell 0.31%. It fell 1.10%, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle.E-mini Russell 2000 Index It fell by 1.10%. The VIX fear index fell 1.10% to 16.15.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell 0.80%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.31%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index fell 0.48%. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index fell 2.10%.

For the whole week, the Dow Jones rose 1.6%, the Nasdaq rose 1.5%, and the energy sector drove the S&P to a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive week of gains in six weeks. Small-cap stocks rose 2.1%, and the chip index rose 0.4%. The China concept stock index fell 0.6% on Friday, but rose 3.9% for the week, significantly outperforming the overall U.S. market.

Most industry ETFs closed lower. Utilities ETF rose more than 2.5%, while consumer staples ETF rose nearly 0.5%. Regional bank ETFs fell more than 2%, banking ETFs fell more than 1.5%, semiconductor ETFs and biotech ETFs each fell at least 1%, while global tech stock ETFs, technology industry ETFs, and healthcare ETFs fell by about 0.5%.

标普500指数的11个板块防御型股利好。工业板块收跌0.69%，原材料板块跌0.64%，信息技术/科技板块跌0.5%，能源板块跌0.33%，可选消费板块跌0.01%跌幅最小，电信板块则涨0.45%，公用事业板块涨2.69%。

“科技七姐妹”涨跌不一。亚马逊收涨0.91%创两个月新高，本周累计上涨2.74%。谷歌A涨0.89%，本周累涨3.89%，延续上周反弹4.47%的表现，谷歌面临欧盟最后通牒，如不调整搜索引擎业务方式，恐被重罚。Meta涨0.4%，连续三天创收盘历史新高，本周累涨3.7%连涨两周。苹果在美股尾盘急转直下， 抹去1.8%的涨幅转而收跌0.29%，本周累涨5.7%。微软跌0.78%，本周累涨1.59%。英伟达跌1.59%，本周累跌2.6%。特斯拉跌2.32%，本周累涨3.46%。

消息面上，苹果华为同日开售，iPhone 16 Pro黄牛加价300元收购，华为三折叠官网秒售空。消息称苹果首款自研5G芯片将有“短板”，不支持毫米波技术，这意味着，苹果可能将继续依赖其现有的5G芯片供应商高通。在即将到来的标普道琼斯指数和富时罗素的股票指数季度性调整中，预计苹果公司将成为大赢家。据Piper Sandler & Co.估计，科技股将出现40 billion美元的净买盘，其中苹果将占据主要部分。

芯片股多数下挫。费城半导体指数收跌1.31%。行业ETF SOXX收跌1.46%；英伟达两倍做多ETF收跌3.27%。英特尔收涨3.31%，美光科技收涨1.85%。博通收涨2.2%，安森美半导体收跌5.15%，高通收跌2.87%，科磊收跌1.76%，阿斯麦ADR收跌3.97%，AMD收跌0.5%，迈威尔科技收跌1.35%，台积电美股收跌1.21%，Arm控股收跌1.2%。

值得一提的是，英特尔OpenVINO 2024.4版本再升级，支持最新的英特尔酷睿Ultra处理器（第二代），并提升了大语言模型的推理性能。两周内连爆两次高通考虑收购英特尔，英特尔股价盘中暴拉近9.5%，高通一度跌超5.5%至日内低点。

AI概念股走势分化。CrowdStrike收涨8.1%，甲骨文收涨0.24%，Palantir收涨1%，BullFrog AI收涨1.26%，超微电脑收涨4.59%，而Serve Robotics收跌4.71%，Snowflake收跌3.29%，戴尔科技收跌0.23%，C3.ai收跌1.98%。BigBear.ai持平，英伟达持股的AI语音公司SoundHound AI收跌0.8%。

China concept stocks fluctuated. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.6%, with a cumulative increase of 3.90% this week. In the ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) dropped by 0.40%, rebounding by 4.04% this week. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 0.45% and has risen 5.27% cumulatively over the past two weeks.

In popular China concept stocks, Nio fell by 2.22%. Nio's William Li stated that the L60 has already sold out, and there will be a production capacity of 0.03 million vehicles per month in March next year. Vipshop fell by 1.65%, Xpeng fell by 1.46%, Tencent Holdings ADR fell by 1.2%, Baidu fell by 0.9%, NetEase fell by 0.7%, JD.com fell by 0.66%, Pinduoduo fell by 0.08%, Tuya Smart dropped by 11%, Dada fell by 8.8%, Daqo New Energy fell by over 6%, EHang Intelligent Technology and ZTO Express fell by over 3%, while Mengniu Dairy ADR and Meituan ADR remained stable. Bilibili rose by 0.76%, Li Auto Inc rose by 1.27%, Xpeng Inc rose by 2.24%, and Trip.com rose by 2.57%.

Other key stocks: (1) Nike rose by 6.84% and appointed Elliott Hill as CEO to replace John Donahoe. (2) FedEx fell by 15%, marking the worst single-day performance in the past two years due to the company's first-quarter financial report falling short of expectations and a downgrade in annual guidance. (3) Novo-Nordisk's U.S. listing fell by 5.46%, with the company stating that the 2A phase clinical trial for Monlunabant to treat obesity was completed, but the extra weight loss effects after taking high-dose medication were limited. Corbus Pharmaceuticals, with the same weight-loss drug components, dropped by over 63% to the lowest close. (4) Bank of America fell by 1.47% as Buffett resumed selling Bank of America shares this week. (5) The lifting of the lock-up period for large shareholders such as Trump was canceled, causing Trump Media to drop by nearly 8% to the lowest point.

European stock markets fell by over 1% on Friday, with the technology sector falling by nearly 3% and the automotive sector falling by approximately 3.6%. Daimler's component stock fell by 6.8%, the worst in performance.

The momentum in the European and American stock markets paused, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 Index falling by 1.42% to 514.26 points, posting a cumulative decline of 0.33% this week. Mercedes-Benz's European stock led the decline, falling by over 8% at one point after revising its 2024 performance guidance. Novo Nordisk's European stock fell by 5.37%.

The German stock index fell by 1.49%, with a cumulative increase of 0.11% this week. The French stock index fell by 1.51%, with a cumulative increase of 0.47% this week. The Italian stock index fell by 0.83%, with a cumulative increase of 0.58% this week. The Spanish stock index fell by 0.21%, with a cumulative increase of 1.85% this week. The UK stock index fell by 1.19%, with a cumulative decline of 0.52% this week. The Dutch stock index fell by 1.20%, with a cumulative decline of 0.23% this week.

Despite the Fed's substantial 50 basis points rate cut on Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose by a total of 9 basis points this week, and the spread between the three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields rose by over 31 basis points this week. The Bank of England remained unchanged, and the 10-year UK bond yield rose by over 13 basis points this week.

U.S. Treasury Bonds: At the close, the more rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose by 0.97 basis points to 3.5910%, reaching a daily high of 3.6436% at 22:28 Beijing time. However, after Federal Reserve Governor Waller mentioned the possibility of another 50 basis point rate cut, the U.S. bond yield significantly plunged, reversing to a decline, with a cumulative increase of 0.86 basis points this week. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose by 2.82 basis points to 3.7413%, accumulating an increase of 9 basis points this week, with trading between 3.5952% and 3.7661% during the period.

European Bonds: The yield on the 10-year German bond, the benchmark of the euro area, rose by 1.0 basis points, accumulating an increase of 6.0 basis points this week. The yield on the 2-year German bond rose by 0.8 basis points, with a weekly increase of 2.0 basis points. The yield on the 10-year French government bond rose by 3.4 basis points, accumulating an increase of 12.7 basis points this week. The yield on the 10-year Italian government bond fell by 0.2 basis points, with a weekly increase of 4.5 basis points. The Italy/France 10-year government bond yield spread narrowed by 4 basis points to 59 basis points. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond rose by 1.1 basis points, with a weekly increase of 13.5 basis points, and the yield on the 2-year UK bond rose by 0.4 basis points, with a weekly increase of 12.5 basis points.

On the news front, the closing of the yield spread between the 10-year French and Italian government bonds was the narrowest since 2010, with investors worried about France's deficit prospects.

USD Index (DXY) fell by about 0.4% this week. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said there was no rush to raise interest rates. The yen fell by over 1% during the day, breaking below 144 to a two-week low. Offshore Renminbi rose more than 321 points during the day, breaking 7.04 yuan to hit a 16-month high. It has risen by about 1% in the past three days and more than 580 points this week. Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, but still up by 5% for the week.

USD: The DXY, which measures against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.12% to 100.738 points. It fell by 0.37% this week, dropping to 100.215 points on September 18 after the Fed announced a 50 basis point cut, then rebounded to 101.474 points on the 19th.

Bloomberg's US Dollar Index rose by 0.14% to 1223.93 points, down 0.18% for the week.

Yen: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, the yen once rose to nearly 142. After Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's press conference, the yen continued to decline, with US stocks hitting a new daily low in early trading, falling more than 1.3% and breaking below 144.

On the news front, the market had originally expected Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to make hawkish comments to boost the yen, but his cautious remarks did not show any intention of hastening interest rate hikes. Instead, he mentioned that the upward inflation risk is weakening, which dampened expectations for a bullish yen.

Offshore Renminbi (CNH) continues to rise: The offshore Renminbi rose for three consecutive days, rising more than 321 points in intraday trading to break 7.04, reaching a 16-month high. It rose by 295 points at the close to 7.0421, with a recent three-day increase of 691 points or 0.97%, and a weekly increase of 586 points or 0.82%.

Cryptocurrencies rise. The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, fell by 0.36% at the close, to $62,940.00, rising by 5.01% for the week to a three-week high, trading between $57,550.00-$64,200.00. The second largest, Ethereum, rose by 3.22% at the close, to $2,548.00, with a weekly gain of 4.94%, trading between $2,253.50-$2,579.00.

Bearish oil market outlook offsets Middle East tension. Oil prices fell on Friday, but concerns about a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, Hurricane 'Frances', and escalating tensions in the Middle East causing supply interruptions, coupled with last week's US oil inventories falling to their lowest in a year, all supported a two-week consecutive rise in oil prices. US oil rose by nearly 4.8% this week, achieving its best single-week performance since October 2023.

WTI October crude oil futures fell $0.03, a decrease of 0.04%, to $71.92 per barrel. The cumulative increase for this week is 4.76%. WTI oil continues the previous decline, with the lowest point of the pre-market trading session falling more than 0.8% to $71, and then a continuous rise. In the midday trading session, it rose more than 0.6% to reach $72.40, but fell in the closing session.

Brent November crude oil futures fell $0.39, a decrease of approximately 0.52%, to $74.49 per barrel. The cumulative increase for this week is 4.02%. Brent oil continues the previous decline, with the lowest point of the pre-market trading session falling nearly 1.2% to touch the $74 level, and then accelerating its rise to refresh the daily high by nearly 0.2%, reaching the $75 level, but fell in the closing session.

According to CCTV news, there was intense exchange of fire between the Israeli army and Hezbollah militants on the Lebanon-Israel border. The Israeli army attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut, resulting in 12 deaths and 66 injuries. The Israeli army confirmed that a senior commander of Hezbollah was killed in the attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Natural gas: U.S. October natural gas futures rose 3.66% to $2.4340 per million British thermal units. The cumulative increase for this week is 5.60%. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 5.30% to 83.300 pence per calorie, with a cumulative decrease of 2.87% for this week. TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 4.74% to 34.615 euros per megawatt-hour, with a cumulative decrease of 3.23% for this week.

Due to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and an escalation of tensions in the Middle East, spot gold rose above $2,620 per ounce, reaching a new historical high with an intraday increase of over 1.5%.

COMEX December gold futures rose 1.25% in the closing session, to $2,647.40 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.41% for this week. Spot gold maintained its upward trend, with a peak increase of more than 1.5% above $2,620 in the midday session, and a 1.36% increase in spot gold at the closing session, to $2,621.88 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.71% for this week. The Federal Reserve's announcement of an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut and Powell's press conference initially pushed gold down to $2,546.98.

Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 0.23% at the close, to $31.495 per ounce, up 1.35% for the week. Spot silver in the Asian market fell slightly, dropping below $30.70 by nearly 0.2%, and then continued to rise. Pre-market trading in U.S. stocks rose nearly 2.1%, breaking through $31.40. At the close, spot silver rose 1.27%, to $31.1775 per ounce, up 1.49% for the week.

Some analysts have warned that the record-breaking rise in gold prices may soon see a correction. On the news front, demand has soared ahead of the consumer season, with India's gold imports reaching a new high in August.

Most industrial metals in London fell. Dr. Copper, an economic bellwether, fell nearly 0.40% to $9,476 per tonne, up more than 1.80% for the week. London zinc fell 1.91% for the week, down more than 1.03%. London aluminum fell more than 2.12%. London nickel rose more than 1.08%, up about 3.55% for the week. London tin rose more than 0.95%, up 1.01% for the week. London lead fell more than 0.96%.

COMEX copper futures fell 0.31%, to $4.3335 per pound, up 2.30% for the week.

Editor/Emily