Hot news

• The three major index futures are mixed, with only the Dow Jones futures slightly rising.

• After changing the helm, Nike's pre-market trading surged nearly 8%.

$Nike (NKE.US)$ Before the market opened, the stock surged nearly 8%. The company announced that veteran Elliott Hill will replace John Donahoe as CEO, effective October 14, 2024. Donahoe will retire on October 13. According to Citigroup, after Nike changes its CEO, it may accelerate the reset of channel inventory in China in the fourth quarter.

• FedEx's pre-market trading fell nearly 13%, compressing its full-year profit estimate range.

$FedEx (FDX.US)$ Before the market opened, the stock fell nearly 13%. The adjusted EPS for the first quarter was $3.60, lower than the analyst's expectation of $4.77. The adjusted operating profit for the first quarter was $1.21 billion, lower than the analyst's expectation of $1.63 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin for the first quarter was 5.6%, lower than the analyst's expectation of 7.41%. The demand trend is below expectations. The company expects the adjusted EPS for the full year to be $20-21, lower than the original forecast of $20-22. The company is expected to repurchase an additional $1.5 billion of its own stocks in the current fiscal year.

• 小鹏汽车盘前续涨超3%，今日第0.5 million辆量产车正式出厂

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ 美股盘前续涨超3%，该股昨日收涨8.68%。消息面上，小鹏汽车今日宣布，第0.5 million辆量产车正式出厂，小鹏旗下第二品牌MONA M03第一万辆量产车亦同步正式出厂。此外，小鹏汇天“陆地航母”飞行体X3-F型航空器（X3-F为内部代号）首次型号合格审定委员会（TCB）会议昨日在广州举行，标志着X3-F全面进入适航审查阶段。

• 禁售期结束后内部人士或快速抛售，特朗普媒体科技集团盘前再跌超5%

随着禁止 $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ 所有者内部人士(如持股56.6%的大股东特朗普)出售其所持股份的“禁售期”到期。由于投资者担心内部人士会在禁售期结束后抛售股票，特朗普媒体科技集团股价本周连续四个交易日收跌，已累计跌超18%。截至发稿，该公司盘前再跌超5%。

• 再卖美银！巴菲特已收回全部投资成本，剩下34 billion美元股份全是利润

Buffett sold nearly $0.9 billion of stocks again this week. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ Combined with the previous stock sale gains and dividend income since 2011, it has exceeded all of his investment costs. The market generally believes that Buffett's continued shareholding reduction is to prepare for future 'tough days' and leave enough ammunition.

• Deutsche Bank: Short-term bearish on memory, not AI chips, underweight Hynix but still overweight Taiwan Semiconductor.

According to Morgan Stanley, AI is undoubtedly the main driving force for the continued growth of the logic chip market at present. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Benefiting from excellent inventory cycle performance, it is expected to maintain an average revenue growth of 26% in the next four quarters. The memory industry has entered a downturn, and companies like Micron are under pressure.

• Options with a total value of $5.1 trillion are expiring! The 'Triple Witching Day' of the US stock market is coming tonight.

Just as Wall Street traders begin to respond to the Fed's rate cut, the 'triple witching day' on Friday may further roil the market. According to derivatives analysis firm Asym 500, around $5.1 trillion in index, stock, and ETF options will expire on Friday.

$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Rising over 2% yesterday, the percentage of put options increased to 62.5%, with volume rising by 50% to 4.88 million contracts compared to the previous day. The highest volume is on put options expiring on December 20th with a strike price of $440, totaling 0.17 million contracts, with open interest at 0.189 million contracts.

Global macro

• U.S. stocks hit a new high again! Wall Street's highest target: s&p 500 is expected to soar to 6100 points by the end of the year.

Bank of Montreal Capital Markets believes that the stock market surge since the beginning of this year has boosted the S&P 500 index by 20%, but this surge is far from over. The bank has raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 index in 2024 from the previous 5600 points to 6100 points, which is the highest target among Wall Street targets tracked by Bloomberg. Belsky believes that the S&P 500 index will still have a 9% increase by the end of 2024.

• Don't rush to celebrate! "Wall Street Wizard": Uncertainty still exists before the election.

Famous Wall Street bull Tom Lee has long predicted that the stock market will rise significantly after the Fed cuts interest rates, but he now claims to remain cautious before the November election. As election-related volatility approaches, the analyst advises investing in cyclical stocks such as industrials, finance, and small caps.

• Has the Fed cut interest rates too late? 'Bond King' Gundlach: The US economy has already entered a recession!

Although the U.S. stock market was delighted by the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut, 'bond king' Jeff Gundlach still believes that the rate cut came too late. This is because the increasing number of job losses in the United States indicates that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

• Hedge fund giant reveals: Collaborating with Harris to develop "crypto-friendly policies" for the industry.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and venture capitalist, said that he and a group of cryptocurrency advocates are collaborating with Vice President Kamala Harris to formulate her digital asset campaign policies before the official election day in November.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

On September 21, 2026, FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker delivered a speech at the Freeman School of Business at Tulane University.

Editor/Somer