受美联储降息影响，港股市场近日表现强势，今日 $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ 收盘再涨1.36%，并且实现六连涨，六日累计涨幅达6.72%。

就过去几年的市场来看，由于美联储的加息政策，港股作为离岸市场，其流动性受到了一定影响。但是随着美联储降息的落地，港股市场或迎来流动性转机。

诸多指标指向港股走出底部

据东吴证券研报显示，诸多指标指向香港股票市场指数走出底部：

交易视角：港股已见地量和地价。港股最近一次“地量和地价”参考案例是2022年。彼时，港股换手率下跌至2022年三季度后反弹，股价也随之反弹。近三个月，恒生指数日成交金额低点在8月，约为30 billion元，换手率约为0.25%（成交金额/自由流通市值），接近2022年三季度低点水平（0.21%），之后换手率缓慢回升，股价也随之反弹。

盈利视角：港股公司可能已经走过低点。尽管宏观经济仍然面临种种挑战，但自下而上的企业盈利在2024年出现恢复。2024上半年恒生指数营业收入、归母净利润同比增速分别为-0.5%和+3.1%，相较2023全年增速（营收同比-4.0%、归母净利润同比+0.8%）明显改善。

From the perspective of USD interest rates: valuation pressure relieved. Looking back at the interest rate cut cycles of the Federal Reserve since 2000, Hong Kong stocks have rebounded after the end of rate hikes and before the first rate cut. During the subsequent rate cut process, except for the significant impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the fundamentals, Hong Kong stocks have generally risen.

Some Hong Kong local family funds appear to be returning to Hong Kong. Soochow Securities has noticed some traditional Hong Kong-based companies, including $CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$POWER ASSETS (00006.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CKI HOLDINGS (01038.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK)$ It has made a significant contribution during the process of Hong Kong series index reaching the bottom. Both stock prices and trading volume have increased significantly, speculating that this is the result of some funds returning. If this is indeed the case, these funds will also be beneficial to further activate the Hong Kong market.

With the implementation of the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks have seen a positive impact on fund liquidity.

Ping An Securities believes that the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Hong Kong stocks is mainly in terms of increasing fund liquidity and opening up domestic policy windows, which combined with the fact that AH is still at a high level, will continue to support Hong Kong stocks in the short term. The key to further sustained upward movement of Hong Kong stocks lies in the degree of domestic policy relaxation and the recovery of domestic economic momentum. If domestic policies continue to exert force, it will be conducive to more funds flowing into Hong Kong stocks and providing more support for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.

Zhejiang Merchants Fund also holds a similar view. As an offshore financial market, the funding situation of Hong Kong stocks is greatly influenced by foreign capital, and overseas institutional investors play an important role in the Hong Kong stock market. After the interest rate cut, the cost of funds has been reduced, and some funds will flow to the undervalued Hong Kong stock market with growth potential in order to pursue higher returns. This is similar to how water always flows to the lower places. Just like in 2008 after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented loose monetary policies and multiple interest rate cuts, resulting in a large amount of funds flowing into Hong Kong stocks and other emerging markets, driving the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market to rise.

Institutions suggest focusing on the biotechnology, technology, and high dividend sectors.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out that in terms of allocation strategy, Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to external liquidity and follow Hong Kong's interest rate arrangements, so they have greater flexibility than A-shares. At the industry level, growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates (such as biotechnology, technology hardware, etc.), sectors with a high proportion of overseas US dollar financing, Hong Kong local dividends, and export chains benefiting from the US interest rate cuts driving real estate demand may also benefit marginally. In the medium term, before seeing greater fiscal support, the structural market trend of wide fluctuation range (high dividend + technology growth) remains the main theme.

Ping An Securities short-term recommends focusing on three main themes: first, growth sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as biotechnology; second, high-elasticity internet sectors, which are usually the industries that benefit the fastest from the inflow of funds into Hong Kong stocks; and third, dividend sectors. It should be noted that it is normal for high dividend sectors to experience a pullback in an overdrawn state. In the near term, caution is needed for targets with a dividend yield lower than 5%. When making selections, it is important to focus on the profitability and dividend-paying ability of individual stocks, rather than simply the level of dividend yield.

Sector-related ETFs:

Biotechnology: $GLOBAL X CHINA BIOTECH ETF (02820.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ChinaAMC Hang Seng Hong Kong Biotech Index ETF (03069.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CSOP China Healthcare Disruption Index ETF (03174.HK)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.

Technology: $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$iShares Hang Seng TECH ETF (03067.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03032.HK)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.

High dividend yield: $Ping An of China CSI HK Dividend ETF (03070.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF (03110.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Fubon Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong (Selected Corporations) High Dividend Yield Index ETF (03190.HK)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.

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Editor/Jeffy