Caifeng News September 20th (Reporter Wang Biwei) The iPhone 16 series officially went on sale today. As Apple's first smartphone with Apple Intelligence, coupled with the replacement cycle of the popular iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series, many institutions expect the sales of the iPhone 16 series to far exceed those of the iPhone 15 series, ushering in a "strong cycle". However, currently, the sales of the iPhone 16 series seem to fall short of expectations.

Caifeng News reporters found that the second-hand recycling heat of the first launch of the iPhone this year is much lower than in previous years. Some second-hand dealers lamented to Caifeng News reporters that "business is bad, this year's market is not as good as last year's."

In addition, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi recently stated that the presale sales of the iPhone 16 series have decreased by 12.7% compared to the 15 series. Currently, the consumer electronics market is still sluggish, with Apple yet to launch new features that can "amaze" consumers. Meanwhile, brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and other consumer electronics brands are launching aggressive offensives, continuously promoting popular products. Faced with fierce competition, can Apple maintain its dominant position in the smartphone market?

Around 10 am this morning, Caifeng News reporters found at the Apple flagship store in Yitian Holiday Plaza in Shenzhen that there were still many experiential customers in the store, with a long queue for on-site pickup.

(Inside the Apple store at Yitian Holiday Plaza, Caifeng News reporter)

The store staff told the reporter that currently, iPhone 16 and 16 Plus are in stock in the store and can be picked up upon ordering; the Pro and Pro Max models require reservations, and the pickup time may be as late as October. Caifeng News reporters browsing the Apple official website found that booking a Pro model currently requires a 10-day wait, while the Pro Max model requires a 2-3 week wait.

Compared to previous years, the popularity of the iPhone 16 seems to have decreased. On the launch day of the iPhone 15 series, Caifeng News reporters had learned at the Yitian Holiday Plaza Apple flagship store that the entire 15 series was out of stock. If ordered on the Apple official website, the base model requires about a week of waiting time, while the Pro Max model requires a wait of almost two months.

The decrease in popularity is also reflected in the second-hand purchase price. In previous years, the Pro and Pro Max series on the first day of release could be sold at a premium of more than 500 yuan in the second-hand market, and popular models could even be sold at a premium of over a thousand yuan. However, around 11 o'clock today, several second-hand dealers on-site stated that they have refused to accept many models including iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, and iPhone 16 Pro, and are only willing to accept the Pro Max gold 256G at a price increase of about 400. "Business is not good, the Pro has already broken, this year's market is not as good as last year," said one scalper.

In fact, on the 18th, well-known Apple analyst Guo Mingchi issued a warning. He stated that the estimated pre-order sales volume of the iPhone 16 series during the first weekend is about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales volume of the iPhone 15 series last year. The key lies in the lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series.

Senior analyst Liu Yu from CINNO Research believes that there are three main reasons why the sales of the iPhone 16 series are currently lower than expected. "First of all, there is a lack of innovation. Compared to the previous generation, the overall improvement in parameters and software is limited, and some key technical functions have not been realized. The AI functions supported by the iPhone 16 have not been fully implemented and will not be available in China until 2025, which has a negative impact on the initial launch."

It is understood that Apple will start testing the American English version of the smart assistant in October and launch it in regions such as Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, New Zealand, and South Africa in December. Chinese, French, Japanese, and Spanish versions will be launched next year, but the specific time is not yet determined. Currently, iPhone models purchased in mainland China cannot use the smart assistant.

Secondly, Liu Yu believes that changes in the market environment are also an important factor. "Major competitors have a clear advantage in AI and other functions, constantly exerting their strength in technological innovation, which has brought significant competitive pressure to Apple."

Currently, many smartphone brands such as Huawei, OPPO, and Vivo have launched models with large screens. In terms of AI functionality, Apple's smart assistant is similar to the AI functions of other manufacturers, and it has not delivered a "impressive" effect.

Thirdly, Liu Yu stated, "In the context of the global economic situation being not optimistic, consumers are more cautious when buying high-priced goods." Currently, the consumer electronics industry is still in a slow recovery phase. The latest forecast from Counterpoint Research shows that by 2024, global smartphone shipments will reach 1.23 billion units, a 5% year-on-year increase. Although there is growth compared to the previous year, there is still a significant gap compared to the 1.39 billion units in 2021.

"In the case of poor sales of Apple, major competitors will take advantage of their early advantage in AI, foldable phones, and other areas to seek a higher market share and strengthen their voice in the high-end market," said Liu Yu.

Today, in addition to the launch of the Apple 16 series, Huawei's folding phone HUAWEI Mate XT extraordinary master also officially went on sale. After the start of the rush to buy, all models of the Mate XT extraordinary master were sold out instantly. At present, the official website channel has announced that it is out of stock, and the purchase page shows 'in line.' However, reporters from CaiLian News visited the Huawei flagship store at Wanda Plaza in Shenzhen and found that there were not many people experiencing in the store. The staff said, 'no support for reservation, on-site only for product understanding.'

(CaiLian News reporter capturing the crowd experiencing Huawei Mate XT)

In terms of the supply chain, there have been few major changes in the main suppliers for the iPhone 16, with the greatest change occurring in the manufacturing landscape. Reporters from CaiLian News learned from the industry that Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) will take on more of the Pro series manufacturing orders this year, which were previously mainly undertaken by Foxconn in past years. In addition, CaiLian News learned from the supply chain that Lens Technology (300433.SZ) is responsible for the front and rear glass covers of the iPhone 16, the camera protection cover, the metal middle frame + side keys, the rear cover assembly, and the supply of sapphires for the side keys. An earlier research report by Ming-Chi Kuo also pointed out that Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ) is responsible for the microphone supplier as in previous years.

Under the pressure of being sandwiched between 'wolf' in the front and 'tiger' at the back, Apple's pressure has increased, and the 'fruit chain' is also finding it difficult to 'lie down and win' as before. In the past, during the release of the iPhone, the 'fruit chains' often saw speculation in the secondary market. But this year, the 'fruit chains' have not received a boost.

'For upstream 'fruit chain' manufacturers, finding new growth points and transformation directions is very necessary, especially in the face of challenges such as reduced Apple orders and intensified market competition. Currently, the transformation direction of the fruit chain companies is focused on new energy autos, smart cabins, XR and other consumer electronics, as well as other smart phone brand customers,' said Liu Yu.