至9月12日收盘，过去一周大科技公司的表现非常强势。其中 $Meta Platforms(META)$ +6.37%， $特斯拉(TSLA)$ +6.14%， $谷歌(GOOG)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ +4.82%， $微软(MSFT)$ +2.74%， $苹果(AAPL)$ +2.74%， $亚马逊(AMZN)$ +1.53%， $英伟达(NVDA)$ -1.07%。
Various ups and downs - a week of big tech performance
Interest rate cuts have officially begun, and investors are surprised. The 50 basis points seem to have exceeded expectations. In fact, it also includes “compensation” for not cutting interest rates in July, and also shows that it is shifting its focus from controlling inflation to promoting full employment.
Although interest rate cuts are seen as a “strong shot” for the market, and the market has also begun an “carnival model” in the early stages, the neutral interest rate mentioned by Powell may be higher than pre-pandemic levels, which means that future interest rate cuts may be slower than market expectations.
However, it cannot be overlooked that interest rate inversion is still positively correlated with economic recession. Historical data shows that since 1954, the inversion of interest rates on 10-year and 3-month treasury bonds usually indicates the impending recession. Of the past 10 inversions, 9 have been accompanied by a recession.
By the close of trading on September 12, the performance of big tech companies over the past week was very strong. Among them $Meta Platforms (META) $ +6.37%, $Tesla (TSLA) $ +6.14%, $Google (GOOG) $ $Google A (GOOGL) $ +4.82%, $Microsoft (MSFT) $ +2.74%, $Apple (AAPL) $ +2.74%, $Amazon (AMZN) $ +1.53%, and $NVDA (NVDA) $ -1.07%.
Core Trading Strategies That Influence Asset Portfolios: Weekly Tech's Core Views
Is Apple the biggest beneficiary of technology ETF position adjustments?
$Hi-Tech Index ETF-SPDR (XLK) $ is a $68 billion tech sector ETF that “rebalances” its investment portfolio every 3 months to meet diversification and weight limits.
This refers to diversification restrictions, which stipulate that the weight of a single company must not exceed 25%, and that the total weight of a company greater than 4.8% must not exceed 50%;
Once a company's weight exceeds 23%, it will be adjusted to less than 23%; if there are multiple large companies with a total weight of more than 50%, the first two will be retained, and the last few will be brought back to 4.5%
As a result, in June 2024, Apple's market capitalization fell to third place, the weight was lowered from 21% to 4.5%, while Nvidia rose to second place, and the weight was raised from 4.5% to over 20%. At the time, the fund passively sold 11 billion US dollars of Apple shares and bought more than 10 billion US dollars of NVDA shares.
Recent trading data shows that since XLK sold Apple and bought Nvidia in June, Apple's performance has led Nvidia by 15.1 percentage points (Apple rose 7.43%, Nvidia fell 7.63%). As a result, the weight of Nvidia's holdings was once again reduced to 4.5% in this rebalance, and XLK is expected to sell some Nvidia and Microsoft shares to increase its holdings in Apple.
However, Nvidia's trading volume is large, with an average daily turnover of 41 billion US dollars. Therefore, rebalancing and reducing Nvidia's holdings by 10 billion US dollars may have limited direct impact on its stock price.
However, Apple's trading volume is lower than NVDA, with an average daily transaction amount of about 12 billion US dollars, so the rebalanced purchase amount is close to 100% of its average daily trading volume, which has a positive effect on its stock price.
Options Watcher - Big Tech Options Strategy
Is Tesla's market coming? Many investors are probably now “rushing” to trade the Robotaxi Event Day on October 10. After all, after the contract was cancelled in August, the market's expectations were even stronger, including but not limited to:
Latest FSD v12.5
Driverless taxi Cybercab
wireless charging
More AI features
Looking at the options market, options activity was increasing until the week of October 11, and the strength of the bulls was also increasing. Call, which expires on October 11, currently has a large number of open orders at 250-270. At the same time, at the current price of 243 US dollars, there were “passive purchases” of 0.22 million shares, 0.19 million shares, and 0.19 million shares on September 27, October 4, and October 11, respectively. In other words, the selling pressure is also quite high. If $250 is to be supported, a very large number of purchase orders are required. Unless there's a big surprise on EventDay, then there's also a lot of pressure.
Another reason to take positions in big tech stocks — why does the “TANMAMG” portfolio have a large market cap?
The Magnificent Seven (Magnificent Seven) forms an investment portfolio (“TANMAMG” portfolio), equal weights, and re-adjusts weights every quarter. The backtest results have far surpassed that of $S&P 500 (.SPX) $ since 2015, with a total return of 2080%. $S&P 500 ETF (SPY) $ returned 229% in the same period, stretching the distance once again.
Big tech stocks performed strongly this week, and the combined return since this year was 37.85%, surpassing SPY's 20.89%.
Over the past year, the combined Sharpe ratio rose to 2, the same as SPY's 2, and the combined information ratio was 1.2.