一、行业β：新能源车液冷板价值量更高、景气度好，储能和空调空间广阔。公司产品下游用于汽车领域的占比超过80%，相比传统燃油车，新能源车的热管理系统核心组件价值量翻倍，其中液冷板是关键零部件，纳百川预测2025 年全球和中国动力电池液冷板的市场规模分别达到145、96 亿元，较2022 年分别增长96%、104%。用铝量方面，假设按照每辆新能源汽车的热管理材料使用20kg 铝合金复合材料，全球新能源汽车对铝合金复合材料需求量将由2020 年的6.62 万吨增长至2025 年的50.84 万吨，CAGR 为50.34%；汽车领域之外，2025 年中国储能电池热管理市场规模有望达到164亿元；假设在空调领域用铝实现80%的铜替换，则市场空间有望实现百亿。[Core Conclusion] We predict that in 2024-2026, the company's net profit due to mother will be 1.14, 1.312, and 1.515 billion yuan, EPS will be 1.14, 1.31, and 1.52 yuan, PE will be 13, 11, and 10 times. The target price for the company under the absolute valuation method will be 18.16 yuan/share, which is covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
[Report Highlights] The market believes that the company's products and technology have no barriers and are highly cyclical. We believe that the company has proven continuous growth and profit stability in 2017-2023; at the same time, high-end aluminum processing has high barriers such as diversified customization, customer certification, complex processes, and service response speed.
[Main logic]
1. Industry beta: New energy vehicle liquid cooling panels have higher value, good prosperity, and extensive space for energy storage and air conditioning. The downstream use of the company's products in the automotive sector accounts for more than 80%. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the value of the core components of thermal management systems for new energy vehicles has doubled. Among them, liquid cooling plates are a key component. In 2025, Nabaichuan predicts that the global and Chinese power battery liquid cooling plate markets will reach 14.5 and 9.6 billion yuan respectively, up 96% and 104% respectively from 2022. In terms of the amount of aluminum used, assuming that 20kg aluminum alloy composites are used as heat management materials for each NEV, the global demand for aluminum alloy composites will increase from 0.0662 million tons in 2020 to 0.5084 million tons in 2025, with a CAGR of 50.34%; outside of the automotive sector, China's energy storage battery thermal management market is expected to reach 16.4 billion yuan in 2025; assuming that 80% of copper is replaced with aluminum in the air conditioning sector, the market space is promising Achieve 10 billion.
2. Company α: High-end (customized), internationalization, upstream layout of raw materials, downstream binding to Tier 1.
1) Historical performance: We selected several leading companies representing the aluminum processing industry as comparison (Huafeng Aluminum, Yinbang, Mingtai Aluminum, Dingsheng New Materials, Changlu Co., Ltd.). Judging from various indicators such as operating income, net profit margin, net profit margin, ROE, and gross profit per ton, in 2017-2023, whether in terms of growth or profitability, Huafeng Aluminum had the best performance. 2) Core barriers:
Complex technical processes and low yield; meet diversified and customized product requirements; customer certification barriers and strict quality management system certification; flexible service response speed and rapid delivery capacity. 3) Looking forward to the future: In line with industry development trends, the company is high-end, internationalized, with an electrolytic aluminum layout, downstream expansion of stamping parts, and there is still potential for growth in production capacity, which is expected to continue its core competitive advantage.
Risk warning: Vehicle sales and electrification rates fall short of expectations, disturbances in raw materials and exchange rates, worsening competition, etc.
