売上総利益率の予想値は開示されていないが、卸の売上高比率が低下することから、若干だが改善する見込みだ。一方で、業容拡大に伴う人件費や物流費などは引き続き増加する計画であることから、販管費は増加する予想となっている。これらの結果、営業利益は前期比18.2%減と予想されており、営業利益率は4.6%（前期は6.0%）へ低下する見込みだ。■Future Outlook LeTech <3497> expects an increase in sales and ordinary income of more than 20%, with sales of 2.14 billion yen (+33.8% YoY), operating income of 150 million yen (+7.7% YoY), ordinary income of 100 million yen (+21.7% YoY), and net income of 1.03 billion yen (-11.4% YoY) for the July 2024 term, and has maintained its initial forecast (announced in September 2023).
1. Performance outlook for fiscal year ending December 2024.
For the fiscal year ending December 2024, it is expected that the revenue will be 51.20 billion yen (an increase of 5.4% compared to the previous year), the operating profit will be 2.36 billion yen (a decrease of 18.2% year-on-year), the ordinary profit will be 2.30 billion yen (a decrease of 21.0% year-on-year), and the net income will be 1.51 billion yen (a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year), which remains unchanged from the initial estimate.
The expected gross profit margin is not disclosed, but due to a slight improvement in the wholesale revenue ratio, it is expected to improve. On the other hand, expenses related to business expansion such as personnel costs and logistics costs are planned to continue increasing, resulting in an expected increase in selling, general, and administrative expenses. As a result, the operating profit is expected to decrease by 18.2% compared to the previous period, and the operating margin is expected to decrease to 4.6% (from 6.0% in the previous period).
2. Sales Channel Outlook
Domestic retail revenue is expected to reach 17.96 billion yen (an increase of 13.4% compared to the previous year) due to the contribution of existing store recoveries, as well as Aoyama store and CODE Matsuzakaya Nagoya store, which opened in the previous period, contributing throughout the year, and the renewal (expansion) of the "MARK&LONA" GINZA SIX store. The Aoyama store, which opened in April 2023, is Cube's first street store (total area of 220m2), but it is expected to contribute year-round in the fiscal year ending December 2024 (compared to 9 months in the previous period). Designed by a prominent architectural designer, it features a luxurious spatial design and is not only expected to contribute to sales but also to further enhance the brand's penetration effect.
The EC channel is performing well in terms of traffic, with domestic EC expected to reach 10.94 billion yen (an increase of 8.0% compared to the previous year) and overseas EC expected to reach 1.46 billion yen (an increase of 27.0% year-on-year).
On the other hand, B2B is still volatile, with an overall tough outlook. The revenue from overseas wholesale is expected to reach 2.72 billion yen (an increase of 34.7% compared to the previous year). Although the growth rate is high due to the small sales scale, the increase in revenue is limited. On the other hand, the mainstay silver wholesaler seems to have hit bottom in retail sales at present, but a rapid recovery is not expected, with revenue expected to be almost flat at 14.05 billion yen (a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year), and achieving targets does not seem easy based on the first half situation. For domestic wholesalers, the situation of some wholesale inventories temporarily expanding and continuing to restrain purchases is ongoing, with revenue expected to decrease by 22.9% to 3.78 billion yen.
(Written by FISCO guest analyst Noboru Terashima)
