盈利预测与估值：年初以来，一带一路方向贸易持续繁荣，义乌当地受益于出口高景气度，在逐渐完善的平台生态下，公司的市场经营主业受益于新市场落地&商铺提价带来的稳定增长，而贸易服务、配套服务、AI、数据要素等业务将在义乌繁荣生态的基础上实现多重变现，综合预计公司2024/2025 归母净利润31.3/35.7 亿元，对应15x/13x PE，维持“强烈推荐”评级。Incident: According to the Yiwu Pay official account, BRICS Pay (BRICS Pay), an independent cross-border trade payment system co-created by the BRICS countries (BRICS), is expected to be officially launched in October this year. The BRICS Payment System is a digital payment platform jointly developed by member countries of the BRICS Economic Union (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). This system allows for unilateral settlement without using the US dollar. Currently, 159 BRICS countries have responded positively and adopted it.
The introduction of the BRICS payment system will promote payment innovation and help internationalize the RMB. ① The BRICS payment system allows for unilateral settlement without using the US dollar, reducing dependence on the SWIFT system and further weakening SWIFT's monopoly position. ② At present, China already has a relatively complete cross-border payment infrastructure, such as CIPS (Cross-border RMB Payment System). In the future, with the promotion of the BRICS payment system, CIPS will further expand the scope of use and provide stronger support for the internationalization of the RMB.
Yiwu Pay is expected to take on the opportunities brought by the BRICS payment system. The 2024H1 cross-border RMB payment business transaction volume exceeds 12 billion yuan (23 annual transaction volume is 8.5 billion yuan). Judging from Yiwu's total import and export trade volume of 324.8 billion in the first half of 2024, Yiwu Pay's market share is close to 4%; at the same time, it can support 25 currencies, and transactions cover more than 150 countries and regions. In this context, Yiwu Pay is expected to take on the opportunities brought by the BRICS payment system, provide efficient cross-border payment solutions for Yiwu foreign trade enterprises, further improve the efficiency of cross-border payments, and help the digital upgrading of Yiwu's foreign trade with various special payment products and functions such as local collection accounts, fund link visualization, secure collection, and fast payment.
Profit forecast and valuation: Since the beginning of the year, trade along the Belt and Road has continued to prosper. Yiwu has benefited from high export prosperity. Under the gradually improving platform ecology, the company's main market business has benefited from steady growth brought about by new market launches and store price increases, while trade services, supporting services, AI, data elements and other businesses will achieve multiple monetization based on Yiwu's prosperous ecosystem. The overall forecast is that the company's 2024/2025 net profit will be 3.13/3.57 billion yuan, corresponding to 15x/13x PE, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: geopolitical risk, risk of fluctuations in foreign trade demand, risk of real estate business contraction, risk of digital platform data falling short of expectations.