首次覆盖光威复材，目标价 38.76 元，给予“增持”评级。航空航天装备放量进度加快，带动碳纤维需求快速提升，公司作为航空航天碳纤维材料核心供应商，业绩有望持续增长。我们预计2024~2026年EPS 为1.09/1.26/1.35 元，给予目标价38.76 元，“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The volume of military aviation equipment was combined with the release of domestic civil aircraft orders, and demand for aerospace carbon fiber continued to be released; the company actively promoted production capacity construction, and the 4,000 ton carbon fiber project in Guangwei, Inner Mongolia was completed and put into operation, and the performance is expected to continue to grow.
Key points of investment:
Covering Guangwei Composite for the first time, the target price was 38.76 yuan, giving it an “increase in weight” rating. The pace of aerospace equipment release is accelerating, driving a rapid increase in demand for carbon fiber. As a core supplier of aerospace carbon fiber materials, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow. We expect EPS to be 1.09/1.26/1.35 yuan from 2024 to 2026, with a target price of 38.76 yuan, and an “additional” rating.
The quantity of aviation equipment and the use of carbon fiber have both increased, opening up a new market for domestic civil aircraft. 1) The accelerated deployment of China's advanced fighter jets and other main combat equipment is an important part of modernizing national defense; the C919 represents that domestic civil aircraft have already received orders for more than 1,000 aircraft. 2) The use of composite materials in advanced military and civil aircraft continues to increase. The fourth-generation fighter F35 uses 36% of the structural weight, which is more than three times higher than that of third-generation fighter jets; new models such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 use nearly five times more composite materials than older models such as the Boeing 777. 3) The company's T300 grade fiber and interior flame retardant pre-impregnation have now passed the PCD review, and T800 grade verification is ongoing, opening up a new market for domestic civil aircraft.
Production capacity has been fully rolled out, and performance has blossomed a bit. 1) The company is the main supplier of aerospace carbon fiber in China and has a complete range of product brands. The company is actively promoting production capacity construction. Currently, it has a production capacity of 500 tons of T300 grade, 2000 tons of T700S grade/T800S grade, 105 tons of T800H/T700G grade, and 80 tons of high-strength high-strength high-mode fiber. The production capacity of T800H1000 tons is undergoing equivalent verification. The first phase of the Inner Mongolia Guangwei Carbon Fiber Industrialization Project was completed and put into operation, adding 4,000 tons of high-performance carbon fiber production capacity. 2) Lightweight, high strength and good heat resistance have enabled carbon fiber to be applied in batches in the aerospace field. China's low-orbit satellite constellation construction is accelerating, and commercial aerospace will strongly drive the increase in carbon fiber demand. In 2023, MJ series carbon fiber, mainly the application of new satellite structures, accounted for 12.39% of the company's revenue, contributing 0.207 billion yuan to sales revenue, an increase of 54.45% over the previous year, which is significantly higher than the 20.28% growth rate of the company's overall revenue growth rate of 20.28% in expanding the fiber sector, reflecting strong demand in the aerospace sector. 3) The company has carbon fiber, pre-impregnation, and composite parts and assembly services required for drone businesses such as AV500 and TP500, which deeply benefit from the acceleration of low-altitude economic construction; 4) The company's procurement costs of carbon fiber raw materials fell significantly in the second half of 2023, which is lower than the same period in 2020, or indicates a recovery in customer demand for carbon fiber blades, and the business performance and profitability of the company's wind power carbon beam business is expected to improve.
Catalysts: Mass production of new downstream equipment has begun, and the T800H kiloton production capacity has passed equivalence verification.
Risk warning: the risk of product price fluctuations, the risk that the company's production capacity progress falls short of expectations, etc.
