On September 20th, Financial Associated Press reported that as the US election approaches, more and more people on Wall Street are starting to speculate in advance on the impact of the election results on the financial market.

UBS Group's credit strategy manager Matthew Mish stated that if Democratic candidate Harris wins the election, it will boost the bonds of American basic industry, capital goods companies, and utilities. However, if Republican candidate Trump wins, it will be favorable for the bonds of US energy, aviation housing, and auto loan companies.

A Democratic victory will benefit the public utilities industry.

Mish mentioned the potential impact of a Democratic victory, stating that bonds of American basic industry, capital goods, and public utilities companies will receive a boost because "we believe this largely means the US government will retain the inflation-lowering bill and support many stimulus policies of the Biden era."

However, if the Democratic party wins, it will weigh down on the bonds of the telecommunications, technology, banking, and auto industries.

He explained that a Harris victory would mean reduced trading matchmaking and strengthened regulatory scrutiny, which would bring pressure to the telecommunications, technology, and banking industries. At the same time, the Harris administration will accelerate the transformation of the US market to electric vehicles, and the strength of US manufacturers to resist import shocks may weaken, which could be a negative factor for US auto manufacturers.

A Trump victory will boost the energy industry.

Mish suggested that if Trump wins the election, it will be beneficial for energy, aviation defense, and automotive companies' bonds. This is because Republicans seem to support more profitable products such as gasoline vehicles and trucks.

"The Trump administration seems to definitely support energy independence," Mish said, "(the Trump administration's plan) to roll back some regulations is positive for the energy industry, especially the oil pipeline industry."

Furthermore, if the Republicans can win big in this year's election, UBS Group believes that bonds rated as CCC (lowest junk bond rating) will perform the best, and small-cap stocks may see greater gains.

Harris currently has a slight edge.

This year's US election competition is particularly fierce, as of now, Trump and Harris are basically neck and neck, but polls show Harris slightly ahead.

According to the polling data analytics platform Fivethirtyeight, Harris currently has a 48.4% polling support, while Trump has 45.5%.

Mish stated that after the September 10th debate between Trump and Harris, due to Harris's stronger performance in the debate, the crediting performance of the US energy and automotive industry was poor, while the utility sector performed well - which also confirms his assessment of the election impact.

"We believe that there are winners and losers in the market," Mish said, "public opinion surveys are quite consistent with crediting trading."