On September 20th, the optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market continued to spread. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ It rallied strongly, once breaking through $64000. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ It rose nearly 4%, staying above $2500.
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BlackRock: The attractiveness of Bitcoin as a reserve asset has increased due to the US federal deficit and debt situation.
According to a document written by some executives of BlackRock, including Samara Cohen, the Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock ETF, and Robert Mitchnick, the Head of Digital Assets, BlackRock has noticed concerns about the spiraling rise of the US $35 trillion fiscal deficit and attributed it to institutions' growing interest in Bitcoin. The document states: "Growing concerns both domestically and internationally about the US federal deficit and debt are increasing the attraction of potential alternative reserve assets as a hedge against potential future dollar events."
Standard Chartered Bank: After the Fed cuts interest rates, bitcoin and the broader crypto market will continue to rise.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin and digital assets will continue to rise after the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven more by favorable macroeconomic conditions rather than the outcome of the US presidential election. In an email on Thursday, Kendrick stated: "Digital assets performed very well after the FOMC meeting. Despite Polymarket showing a 52/47 support rate for Kamala Harris today, the situation remains the same." He attributed this positive performance to macroeconomic drivers beginning to outweigh election-related uncertainty. Kendrick insisted that the impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin's price is not as significant as it used to be. He said: "While the US election is important, macroeconomic drivers are beginning to dominate." Kendrick stated that he is monitoring the difference between short-term and long-term US government bond yields as an indicator of market conditions favorable to digital assets. "I have looked at the US 2s10s curve, and a steeper US yield curve is favorable for digital assets."
Viewpoint: Bitcoin may break new highs and is expected to rise to more than $100,000 by the end of the year.
CoinDesk analysts predict that Bitcoin may be on the verge of another price breakthrough, with the price potentially reaching $108,000 to $155,000 based on past market cycles. Since reaching a high point of $73,000 in March, Bitcoin has undergone a long period of correction, leading many investors to believe that the market has peaked. However, the recent price trend of Bitcoin is similar to its performance in the two bull markets of 2016 and 2020. Both of those bull markets experienced significant increases in value by the end of the year. This suggests that Bitcoin may see a similar trend by the end of this year. Despite its recent weak performance, Bitcoin has still seen a 290% rise since the market low point in November 2022, aligning with previous bull market cycles. If Bitcoin follows the past trend, its price could increase by 600% to 900% by the end of the year, reaching a range of $108,000 to $155,000.
QCP Capital: Volatility in the crypto market is expected to soar as the US presidential election approaches.
QCP Capital stated in its latest market analysis that the Fed announced a 50 basis points rate cut last night, and plans to cut rates twice more this year, with 4 more cuts in 2025. As Powell was vague about the scale and speed of the subsequent rate cuts, everyone will be focusing on the upcoming job data to look for signs. The U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread, which has been inverted since July 2022 as an indicator of economic recession, has recently widened to +8 basis points, reflecting optimism in the market and a shift towards risk appetite assets. The S&P500 index is attempting to reach a record high, but closed lower after the FOMC meeting. In terms of options, there was a sharp drop after the FOMC, with BTC falling by 19 vols and ETH dropping by 18 vols. After the FOMC, BTC rebounded from $0.059 million to $0.062 million, while ETH was around $2,400. It is expected that as the election day approaches, volatility will surge after the next FOMC meeting.Implied volatilityThere was a sharp drop after the FOMC, with BTC falling by 19 vols and ETH dropping by 18 vols. After the FOMC, BTC rebounded from $0.059 million to $0.062 million, while ETH was around $2,400. It is expected that as the election day approaches, volatility will surge after the next FOMC meeting.
4E Asia-Pacific Ambassador: As the world enters an interest rate cut cycle, the relationship between traditional finance and bitcoin is undergoing profound changes.
TOKEN 2049 Conference successfully concluded, with 4E as a platinum sponsor performing well at the exhibition. Through booth demonstrations and on-site interactions, 4E fully showcased its latest blockchain technology and financial products, attracting a large number of attendees. Many participants also downloaded and registered for the 4E APP on-site, demonstrating a strong interest in its products. In addition, 4E organized interactive activities and gave away exquisite souvenirs, enhancing the on-site atmosphere and experience. During the two-day conference, 4E was also invited to participate in multiple interviews. The 4E Asia-Pacific Ambassador stated that as the world enters an interest rate cut cycle, the relationship between traditional finance and bitcoin is undergoing profound changes. Bitcoin, known as "digital gold," is attracting more and more attention from investors and traditional financial institutions. During TOKEN2049, several industry leaders also emphasized the important role of bitcoin in the global financial system, indicating that it may play a more central role in the future.
It is reported that the 4E platform integrates a variety of financial products including cryptos, forex, csi commodity equity index, stocks, and indices, supporting trading of over 600 types of spot and derivatives assets, with over 1.2 million users and business coverage in more than 20 countries and regions globally, demonstrating strong development momentum. Its appearance at TOKEN2049 has not only enhanced 4E's brand awareness and close ties with global users, but also further consolidated its cutting-edge position in the one-stop trading field.
Block rewards have become the main source of income for bitcoin miners, accounting for over 98%.
The halving effect has led to a reduction in transaction fee income, making block rewards the main source of income for bitcoin miners. On September 13, only $398,860 of the miners' daily income of $25.35 million came from transaction fees, accounting for only 1.6% of the total income. This is a significant change compared to previous periods, when transaction fees accounted for over 40% of miner income. Analysts say that as block rewards halve every four years, the importance of transaction fees in network security will only grow. Some advocate for increasing block size to accommodate more transactions, while others advocate for adopting second-layer solutions, which could drive more settlement transactions back to the main chain.
Robert Kennedy: Bitcoin mining is a powerful new tool to support wind power grids.
Robert Kennedy recently stated in a letter to The Economist that bitcoin mining is a powerful new tool to support renewable energy-intensive power grids. He points out that although the power grid is facing pressure from manufacturing, electric cars, and data centers, the electricity consumption patterns of bitcoin mining are different from traditional consumption and can have a positive impact on the power grid. Kennedy emphasizes that unlike facilities such as data centers, bitcoin mining only operates when the electricity is cheap and abundant. When there's a shortage of power causing a price increase, the mining operations reduce their consumption in seconds. In addition, Kennedy points out that bitcoin miners are actively participating in demand response programs, allowing grid operators to control their electricity usage to stabilize the grid. Their participation in these programs helps lower electricity costs for consumers through competitive bidding in the open market.
CryptoQuant: The decline in short-term BTC holdings may hinder price breakthroughs.
CryptoQuant data shows that the supply of short-term bitcoin holders (STH) has reached the lowest level since 2012. Julio Moreno, director of CryptoQuant research, says this may limit the ability of bitcoin to break through the current price range. The data shows that bitcoin supply is shifting towards long-term holders (LTH), i.e. addresses that have held bitcoin for over 155 days. Although it is a prerequisite for price appreciation for long-term holders to accumulate bitcoin, Moreno stresses that bitcoin still needs additional demand from short-term holders to maintain price growth. Moreno adds, 'There is still no significant new demand from short-term holders.'
Editor/Somer