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大行评级|大摩:低息利好香港地产股 新鸿基地产及领展估值吸引

Bank Ratings | Credit Suisse: Low interest rates are bullish for Hong Kong property stocks, attractive valuations for SHK PPT and Link REIT.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Sep 20 10:49  · Ratings

Morgan Stanley pointed out that Hong Kong has unique advantages benefiting from the decrease in US interest rates and the accelerated economic growth in the mainland. The bank expects Hong Kong's property prices to rebound by 6% next year after falling 8% this year. Despite a 30% adjustment in residential prices since 2021, the current affordability ratio of Hong Kong residences is still at a historical high of 50%. However, assuming that mortgage rates fall to 3.2% next year, the ratio is expected to improve to 45%, and rental deduction for home returns will also turn positive. On the other hand, the bank believes that the decline in mortgage rates is unlikely to support residential sales in Singapore, and local residential prices are expected to fall by 5% next year. This is based on strict financial regulations, high stamp duty, and reduced demand for public housing swaps and increased housing supply. The bank predicts that the recovery of property transactions will make Capitaland a winner in the early stage of the interest rate cut cycle in Singapore. As for Hong Kong property stocks, SHK PPT and Link REIT are attractive in terms of valuation, and earnings per share and dividends per share are expected to grow under reduced interest expenses.

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