#中东局势 # #黄金技术分析 #2K99讯 On Thursday (September 19), spot gold soared more than 1%, once approaching 2,595 US dollars/ounce. Analysts pointed out that the US dollar returned to a downward trend after the Federal Reserve's decision. Coupled with the tense geopolitical situation, the price of gold was boosted. Heavy news came from the Middle East cease-fire negotiations. The Wall Street Journal recently published an exclusive report saying that US officials acknowledged that Biden was unable to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza.

Spot gold closed on Thursday, surging $27.31, or 1.07%, to $2586.49 per ounce; the price of gold hit an intraday high of $2594.90 per ounce.

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that after the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in interest rates and entered an easing cycle, the price of gold rose on Thursday. Traders have overlooked the rise in US Treasury yields, and the price of gold is still moving towards 2,600 US dollars/ounce.

The US dollar index closed down 0.3% to close at 100.64 on Thursday; the US dollar index hit 101.45 in early Asian trading on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00% on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve expects the benchmark interest rate to drop another 50 basis points by the end of this year, a full 100 basis points next year, and another 50 basis points in 2026.

Alex Ebkarian, Chief Operating Officer of Allegiance Gold, said, “The market is considering larger and more interest rate cuts because our fiscal and trade deficits are, and this will further weaken the overall value of the dollar.”

UBS believes that the price of gold can rise further and is expected to target 2,700 US dollars/ounce by mid-2025.

“Driven by recent risk factors, we expect demand for gold ETFs to accelerate in the coming months,” UBS said.

The situation in the Middle East is tense, and important news spreads from cease-fire negotiations

Ebkarian said, “If you combine geopolitical risk with our current deficit, low yield environment, and weak dollar, the combination of all these factors will cause the price of gold to rise.”

In times of political and economic uncertainty, gold is seen as a safe-haven function, and since gold does not prosper, it often thrives in a low interest rate environment.

The US “Wall Street Journal” published an exclusive report on Thursday local time saying that for several months, senior US officials have been saying that a cease-fire and hostage release agreement is within easy reach, but now they privately acknowledge that they do not expect Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement before the end of Biden's presidency.

(Screenshot source: US “Wall Street Journal”)

The report pointed out that the Biden administration will not stop seeking an agreement, believing that this is the only way to end the war in Gaza and stop the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The White House has previously stated that the warring parties have agreed on the “90%” text of the agreement, so they are still hopeful for a breakthrough. However, many senior White House, State Department, and Pentagon officials believe that the warring parties will not agree to the current framework.

An official from an Arab country said shortly after the pager attack experienced by Hezbollah: “There is no chance to achieve this goal now. Everyone is watching and waiting for the situation after the general election. The results will determine what the next administration can do.”

Failure to reach an agreement would hurt Biden's political legacy. According to the Ministry of Health in Gaza, more than 0.04 million Palestinians have died as a result of the war, mostly women and minors.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that although the government has been saying for months that an agreement is about to be reached, the prospect of reaching a final agreement is “daunting.”

Kirby said, “We're no closer to this goal now than we were a week ago.”

According to a recent report by Agence France-Presse, Lebanese Minister of Public Health Firas Abyad said that communication equipment explosions that occurred in many parts of Lebanon on September 17 and 18 local time have killed 37 people and injured nearly 3,000 others.

Following a pager explosion in Lebanon on September 17, walkie-talkie explosions occurred in many parts of Lebanon on September 18. After the incident, Hezbollah in Lebanon blamed Israel for the bombing, but the Israeli side has yet to publicly comment on it.

On September 19, local time, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on all countries to take a “firm stand” at the ongoing 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly to stop Israel's “aggression” against Lebanon.

Iranian President Pezzahizyan said in a social media post on September 19 that the bombing of communications equipment in Lebanon was a terrorist act. Iran condemns this crime, and the criminals will definitely be punished. Hussein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, said on the same day that Israel would face “a strong response from the Resistance Front.”

Hamas issued a statement on September 19 thanking Hezbollah in Lebanon for its support. Hamas said that Hezbollah's firm position “thwarted Israel's attempts to destroy the resistance movement in the Gaza Strip.”

How to trade gold?

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that the upward trend in gold prices remains unchanged, but after Wednesday's “shooting star” pattern, if buyers want to continue to overcome the $2,600 per ounce mark, they must challenge the high of 2,599 US dollars/ounce so far this year.

The momentum favors buyers, Valencia said. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved higher in the bullish zone, but was not in the overbought region. Therefore, the path of least resistance for gold prices is to the upside.

Valencia said that the first resistance level for gold was 2,599 US dollars/ounce, followed by 2,600 US dollars/ounce. If it strengthens further, buyers may challenge the psychological levels of $2,650 per ounce and $2,700 per ounce.

(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

On the downside, Valencia added that if the price of gold falls below the September 13th low of 2,556 US dollars/ounce, the next support level will be 2,550 US dollars/ounce. Once it falls below this level, the next target will be a high of 2,531 US dollars/ounce on August 20 (which has now turned into support), and then the low of 2,485 US dollars/ounce on September 6.