Key points of investment

The imbalance between supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry chain puts pressure on the company's performance in stages

With 2024H1, the company achieved operating income of 38.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.41%; net profit to mother was 5.243 billion yuan, which changed from profit to loss year-on-year. Achieved a gross profit margin of 7.66% and a net sales margin of -13.65%. With 2024Q2, the company achieved operating income of 20.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.6%, and a year-on-month increase of 18.00%; net profit to mother was 2.893 billion yuan, which changed from profit to loss, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. Achieved a gross sales margin of 6.61%, down 2.28 pct from month to month; net sales margin was -13.9%, down 0.56 pct from month to month. The decline in performance is mainly due to the intensification of the mismatch between supply and demand in the domestic photovoltaic industry. Prices in the industrial chain continue to decline, barriers to overseas trade continue to increase, inventory impairment accrual effects, and profit decline.

BC's full-scenario product value is prominent, and the company has built a comprehensive technical moat 2024H1. The company achieved 44.44 GW of silicon wafer shipments, including 21.96 GW of external sales; 2.66 GW of batteries; and 31.34 GW of components. Among them, sales in the Asia-Pacific region increased by more than 140% year on year. During the reporting period, the company achieved a landmark breakthrough in HPBC 2.0 mass production technology, completed the entire battery mass production line, and fully met the technical cost standards. The Hi-Mo 9 is a double-sided module for the centralized market. The module mass production power is 660W, the module conversion efficiency is 24.43%, the double-sided ratio exceeds 70%, and the resistance to hidden cracks is increased by 80%. It has obvious advantages over TopCon products in terms of temperature coefficient, attenuation, and uneven light irradiation resistance. Hi-mo X6 Max series products introduced 2382 x 1134 mm optimal component size design and advanced Terry Core Technology, and the mass production conversion efficiency of components was increased to 23.3%. The company's BC module shipments are about 10GW. The average monthly power generation gain of the company's Hi-Mo X6 anti-dust module is 2.84% compared to conventional modules, and the highest monthly relative gain is 5.4%. Based on the new packaging scheme, the power of HPBC 2.0 components has been greatly increased by more than 10W. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of back-contact crystalline silicon heterojunction solar cells (HBC) exceeded 27.30%, the R&D conversion efficiency of BC modules (72 version - single sided) achieved 25.64%, the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon-perovskite laminated batteries exceeded 34.6%, and the authoritative certification efficiency of commercial M6 size silicon-perovskite laminated batteries reached 30.1%, making breakthrough progress in commercial applications.

Focus on long-term steady management, leading the industry in advantageous production capacity layout

Longji's Jiaxing plant is the only “lighthouse factory” in the global photovoltaic industry. Intelligence and digitalization are at the leading level in the world. The company's high-quality N-type Terry silicon wafers have been verified and introduced into mass production; with the construction and capacity transformation projects of BC second-generation projects such as the first phase of 12.5GW batteries and Tongchuan 12GW batteries in Xixian New Area, HPBC 2.0 products will be launched on a large scale by the end of 2024. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity will reach 70 GW (of which HPBC 2.0 production capacity is about 50 GW). All domestic battery bases plan to migrate to BC products by the end of 2026. Shipments from the North American region have been cleared smoothly, and the US 5GW component factory has officially been put into operation.

Profit forecasting and valuation

The profit forecast was lowered and the “buy” rating was maintained. The company is a pioneer of BC batteries in China, and continues to cultivate outstanding technical advantages. Considering the intensification of industry competition, the company's product profits are under pressure in the short term, but as a leader in the photovoltaic module industry, the company is deeply involved in the BC battery technology route and has an outstanding competitive advantage. We lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026 and maintained a “buy” rating. We expect the company's net profit to be -4.6, 4.2, and 6.3 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026 (4.759, 8.287, and 10.355 billion yuan respectively before the downgrade), corresponding EPS is -0.61, 0.55, and 0.83 respectively Yuan, corresponding to 2025-2026 PE is 24 and 16 times, respectively.

Risk warning

Increased competition in the photovoltaic industry; international trade frictions; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; decline in gross margin