对于写字楼市场，李婉茵表示，虽然减息对市场有利，但写字楼市场的复苏将受到持续高供应的限制，而2025年写字楼供应预计接近350万呎。在市场消化能力仍需时间恢复下，预测写字楼租金于2025年仍会下调约6%。The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and HSBC (00005) and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) announced separately that they would lower their preferential interest rates by 25 basis points.
According to the Intelligent Finance News app, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and HSBC (00005) and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) announced separately that they would lower their preferential interest rates by 25 basis points. Li Wanyin, head of High Power Research Department, said that the total investment in the Hong Kong real estate market this year is expected to exceed 30 billion Hong Kong dollars, and in 2025, if the economic situation becomes more optimistic, the total investment is expected to further increase to 37 billion Hong Kong dollars. The implementation of the interest rate cut policy may encourage investors to actively seek market opportunities, especially those undervalued and located in core areas of high-quality assets, and may also attract international capital inflow.
Li Wanyin said that due to the current low overall transaction volume in the real estate market, there are still about 0.021 million unsold units. The interest rate cut is undoubtedly an important bullish factor for the market, which will help boost the overall economy and real estate. However, the stimulating effect brought by the interest rate cut is not expected to be as significant as the complete withdrawal of the cooling measures at the end of February this year. At that time, the withdrawal attracted some investors to re-enter the market, but the current market conditions are weak and the transaction volume is scarce. It is believed that the interest rate cut will stimulate the transaction volume to rebound. Nevertheless, the forecast of a 5-10% decline in property prices in 2024 is maintained.
Regarding the office market, Li Wanyin said that although the interest rate cut is beneficial to the market, the recovery of the office market will be limited by continued high supply, with office supply expected to reach close to 3.5 million square feet in 2025. With the market's ability to digest still needing time to recover, it is predicted that office rents will be reduced by about 6% in 2025.
For retail properties, she said that the interest rate cut is expected to boost consumer confidence, drive retail consumption, and bring potential rental growth to the industry. It is predicted that overall rental rates on the main streets of core areas will maintain the initial forecast at the beginning of the year, with a growth of about 5%-10%.
