首次覆盖晋西 车轴，目标价 4.38元，给予“增持”评级。公司主营铁路装备，受益于大规模设备更新政策以及轨道交通维修周期将至，业绩有望超预期增长。预计公司2024-2026 年EPS 分别为0.03/0.04/0.05 元，给予公司目标价4.38 元，对应2024 年128 倍PE，给予“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company is the most comprehensive railway axle manufacturer in the world. It is the only listing platform under the Jinxi Group. Benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies and the upcoming rail transit maintenance cycle, the company's performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Key points of investment:
It covered Jinxi axles for the first time. The target price was 4.38 yuan, giving it an “increase in weight” rating. The company specializes in railway equipment, benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies and the upcoming rail transit maintenance cycle, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations. The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.03/0.04/0.05 yuan respectively, giving the company a target price of 4.38 yuan, corresponding to 128 times PE in 2024, giving it an “increase in weight” rating.
The market believes that the company is mainly engaged in rail transit equipment. China's railway passenger and cargo vehicle ownership remains at a low growth rate, demand in the downstream market is insufficient, and the company's performance will maintain a slow growth rate. We believe that, benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies and the upcoming rail transit maintenance cycle, industry demand will peak. As the only listing platform under Jinxi Group, the company's performance is expected to exceed expectations. (1) China's railway industry issued a series of support policy documents. Further promotion of the “Belt and Road” initiative has helped China's railway technology and equipment reach the world. China's railway construction investment still has potential. Since 2023, the growth rate of China's railway fixed asset investment has increased. In the first half of 2024, railway fixed asset investment reached 337.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6% over the previous year, a record high. (2) China's railway train sets and new vehicles added to urban rail transit entered a period of rapid growth in 2014 and 2017, respectively. According to the 8-year maintenance and replacement cycle, it is expected that railway axle products will usher in a peak demand period, and large-scale equipment renewal policies will also drive demand for railway axles.
The company has achieved remarkable results in developing overseas markets, closely following the localization and replacement process of China's high-speed rail EMU axles. (1) The company has achieved remarkable results in developing overseas markets. It is the first manufacturer in the mainland to build new vehicles and repair axles for the Hong Kong Metro. It has maintained long-term and stable cooperative relationships with leading companies in the international market, such as Westinghouse Brake and Alstom, and has reached many countries such as North America, the European Union, Australia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, etc. The company's overseas revenue in 2023 was 0.389 billion yuan (+99.4%), accounting for more than 30% of revenue. (2) The company closely follows the localization and replacement process of high-speed rail axles in China. It is the first batch of research units to participate in the research and trial production of high-speed rail EMU axles with a speed of 350 kilometers per hour. Autonomous EMU axles with a speed of 350 kilometers per hour have been used in batches for the “Fuxing” to officially carry passenger trains, and the first batch of CR450 high-speed EMU axles has been delivered.
Catalysts: Large-scale equipment renewal and maintenance cycles are approaching, overseas market development is speeding up
Risk warning: Market competition intensifies, domestic market demand falls short of expectations
