维持“增持” 评级。公司公告 2024年半年报，24H1实现营收 22.17亿元，同降9.64%，归母净利润0.42 亿元，同降47.60%，扣非净利润-0.30 亿元，同降266.46%，略低于预期，主要受光伏等下游供需矛盾加剧影响。考虑业绩影响因素消化需要时间，我们下调2024-25年EPS 预测至0.14、0.21 元（-0.12、-0.17），新增2026 年EPS 预测0.31 元，参考可比公司2024 年PS 估值，综合考虑公司新品类放量节奏或存一定不确定性，给予2024 年PS 3X，维持目标价14.03 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2024 semi-annual report. The performance was slightly lower than expected. Downstream demand was weak and revenue was under pressure, showing that profits in the sector improved, the materials sector was waiting for superior products to be released, UTG integration had significant advantages, and synthetic silicon dioxide was progressing steadily.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company announced the 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 2.217 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.64%, net profit to mother of 0.042 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.60%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 266.46%, which was slightly lower than expected, mainly affected by the intensification of downstream supply and demand conflicts such as photovoltaics. Considering the factors influencing performance, we lowered the 2024-25 EPS forecast to 0.14, 0.21 yuan (-0.12, -0.17), and added 0.31 yuan to the 2026 EPS forecast. Referring to the 2024 PS valuation, taking into account the company's 2024 PS pace or some uncertainty, the 2024 PS 3X was given to the 2024 PS 3X, maintain the target price of 14.03 yuan, and maintain the “gain” rating.
Downstream demand is weak, putting pressure on the revenue of the Display and Applied Materials sector. The company's 24H1 display section and application sector achieved revenue of 1.546 and 0.671 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 32.95% and 23.15% (or the impact of the adjustment of the balance sheet). The display sector is affected by the weak recovery of the consumer electronics market and intense industry competition due to the conflict between supply and demand; the materials sector, affected by continuous real estate adjustments and the removal of the photovoltaic industry chain, has had an impact on volume and price. Looking ahead, short-term demand may still be bottoming out, but revenue is expected to remain resilient as the company advances structural adjustments and deepens the development of major customers.
The profit of the display sector has improved, and the materials sector is awaiting the release of superior products. The gross margins of the company's 24H1 display materials and applied materials were 14.45% and 18.84%, respectively, +6.57 pcts and -2.16 pcts (or the impact of adjustment of the deposit statement); net profit was -3.22 and 91.97 million yuan (without interdivision offsetting), respectively, and +41.47 and -67.27 million yuan, respectively. Among them, display materials mainly benefit from changes in product structure, and the share of notebook computers has increased. Applied materials are expected to be mainly affected by price pressure to make profits. 24H2 has increased the contribution of the company's new products such as UTG and synthetic silica, or may have a positive effect on profit restoration.
UTG integration has significant advantages, and the synthesis of silica is progressing steadily. The company's UTG covers the “high-strength glass - ultra-thin thinning - high-precision post-processing” process, with remarkable integration advantages. The second phase of the project plant has been completed and has some production capacity. It has been introduced to many customers such as downstream panel companies and terminal manufacturers in the market, which is expected to achieve high growth along with the increase in the penetration rate of terminal folding screens. At the same time, the production capacity construction and downstream verification of the company's synthetic silica project are also progressing steadily, and may enter the trial production stage during the year.
Risk warning: Production capacity investment falls short of expectations, product verification falls short of expectations, demand falls short of expectations.