On September 19, Guolonghui released a report stating that the rate cut by the Federal Reserve has already been reflected in the stock prices of Hong Kong property stocks. It is expected that Hong Kong interest rates will not follow the rate cut before the end of this year, and interest rates are only one of the factors affecting property stocks. The bank stated that due to the short-term non-reduction of interest rates in Hong Kong, it is expected that the sales of first-hand properties in Hong Kong will remain stagnant, and residential property prices are expected to further adjust. Currently, there is an oversupply in the property market, and it will take time for the market to regain interest in properties or for new land supply to pause for a period of time. In addition, the rental business of major developers is less sensitive to interest rate cycles than economic cycles, and it is expected to take 1-2 years for recovery. The most direct benefit of a rate cut is the reduction of interest expenses for developers. The bank estimates that a 25 basis point rate cut will result in an average profit growth of 1.5%, which will have a short-term positive impact on highly leveraged developers, including New World Development (0017) and Sino Land (0083). However, considering operational and financial difficulties, it is believed that the decline in profits of New World Development cannot be offset by interest savings. The bank believes that in terms of "rate cut trades," it is bullish on Link REIT (0823), while Sino Land (0083) is more favorable for longer-term "cross-cycle" trading. Both stocks are rated as outperforming the market, with target prices of HK$45 and HK$10.2 respectively.
大行评级丨建银国际:香港地产股已大致反映减息因素 看好领展信置
Credit Rating Update: CICC International: Hong Kong property stocks have largely reflected the easing factor, bullish on Link REIT.
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