缅因州至得克萨斯州30多个港口的4.5万名码头工人处理着东海岸港口近一半的货运。代表这些工人的国际码头工人协会（ILA）要求提高工人们的工资，并确保机器人不会取代人类的工作。①The United States is currently holding elections, and it has just started an interest rate cut cycle on Wednesday. At this time, any slight movement in the economy could become a major challenge. ②Port workers on the US East Coast have warned that if they cannot reach a new labor agreement by the end of this month, they will go on strike starting from October 1st. ③This will have a serious impact on the retail trade in the United States and may even disrupt the downward trend of inflation.
On September 19, Caixin News Agency (Editor Marlan): The East Coast of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico may face a major strike starting from October 1. Currently, US retailers are preparing for the traditional holiday sales season, which includes the golden sales season of Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year. This is the most critical three months for US retailers in the fiscal year.
If the labor and management cannot reach an agreement by the end of this month, US retailers will face great difficulties in this important sales quarter. Several major retail and trade companies in the United States have warned that this could have a devastating impact on the US economy.
More than 0.045 million dock workers at more than 30 ports from Maine to Texas handle nearly half of the freight at East Coast ports. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), representing these workers, is demanding higher wages for workers and ensuring that robots do not replace human labor.
Currently, the base salary for dock workers is $39 per hour, about $81,000 per year, and with overtime pay and other benefits, some workers can earn up to $0.2 million. But workers protest that the wage increase is not enough to match the local price increase, and the working hours of high-paid workers can reach 100 hours per week.
Potential Impact
Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Schwartz said that if the strike lasts for a short period of time, consumers are unlikely to feel a shortage of goods during the holiday shopping season. But if the port strike lasts for more than a month, the shortage of goods may intensify, especially in the automotive and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, US auto exports may also be affected.
Jonathan Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the American Retail Federation, pointed out that many retailers have started shipping goods in advance or changed their logistics to the West Coast to mitigate potential negative impacts.
The union has called on both labor and management to return to the negotiating table and had previously hoped for US government intervention to prevent a possible strike action. However, the White House has stated that if dockworkers are determined to strike, Biden will not exercise executive power to intervene in labor disputes.
Sea-Intelligence, a Copenhagen shipping consultancy, estimates that clearing the backlog caused by a one-day strike could take 4-6 days of work. This means that if there is a two-week port strike, it may take until 2025 to resume normal operations.
Transportation experts also add that countries relying on direct Atlantic routes, such as Europe, India, and others, will be the most severely affected. At the same time, the West Coast will also face tremendous pressure due to the surge in cargo volume.
Data shows that the Port of Long Beach on the West Coast broke its busiest record in 113 years in August, with throughput increasing by nearly 34% year-on-year. The neighboring Port of Los Angeles also reported a 16% increase in cargo volume in August.
