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日股又飙了!美联储降息提振情绪,亚洲股市蓄势待发

The Japanese stock market surged again! The Fed's rate cut boosted sentiment, and Asian stock markets are poised for action.

Golden10 Data ·  Sep 19 09:21

The analyst said that the Fed's rate cut is bullish for Asian stock markets and risk currencies, which may drive capital inflows into emerging markets. Be cautious of profit-taking in the Asian forex market after a recent rebound.

After the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points and indicated further policy easing in the coming months, Asian stock markets and European and American stock futures rose in sync on Thursday.

As of the time of writing, the Nikkei 225 index rose to an increase of 2%; the Australian S&P/ASX200 index opened up by 0.3% and briefly reached 8169.40 points, setting a new historical high; the European Euro Stoxx 50 index futures rose by 0.68%, the UK FTSE 100 index futures rose by 0.54%, and the German DAX index futures rose by 0.54%; the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.85%, the Nasdaq futures rose by 1.3%, and the Dow futures rose by 0.51%.

Manish Bhargava, CEO of Straits Investment Management, said, "The reduction of interest rates in the United States may boost risk appetite in Asian stock markets and drive capital inflows into emerging markets as investors seek higher returns. The initial stage of the Fed's normalization cycle is more determined than expected as it has realigned its policy focus to address labor market conditions."

Analysts say that the Fed's decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points is likely to benefit Asian stock markets, as it gives central banks in the region more room to implement monetary easing policies.

Gary Dugan, CEO of Dalma Capital, said that the interest rate cut will ease pressure from tight monetary policies and alleviate concerns over the weakness of local currencies. Brad Bechtel, Global Head of Foreign Exchange at Jefferies, said that this outcome is favorable for risk assets and high-yielding currencies, but the foreign exchange trends in Asia may be constrained due to the anchoring effect of the Renminbi.

Here are more comments from analysts:

Gary Dugan, CEO of Dalma Capital:

The Asian market should view the actions of the Federal Reserve positively. It relieves the pressure of monetary tightening policies, and with the possibility of a weakening US dollar, central banks in Asia can loosen their monetary policies without worrying about weakening their own currencies. We expect rate-sensitive stocks (such as financial and mutual funds) to strengthen further. We also anticipate that domestic consumer stocks will perform well, as we expect consumer confidence to increase. The borrowing costs have been high and should now decrease.Real Estate Investment TrustBetaShares Holdings Fixed Income Manager Chamath De Silva:

"In fact, no one can say for sure. If there are no significant changes in the Asian stock markets at the close, I wouldn't be surprised to wait for more clues from the subsequent reaction of the US market tonight. In some ways, this is a typical response of the market to the start of an easing cycle: the curve becomes steeper, the breakeven point increases slightly, but this is also consistent with unexpected hawkishness in other markets: gold weakens, the belly and long end of the curve yield rise, and the US dollar strengthens."

Jefferies Global Forex Manager Brad Bechtel:

"The movement of prices after the Fed meeting is due to moderate position unwinding. There may be more USD buying in Asia, especially against the Japanese yen, Korean won, and Chinese renminbi, while traders may take profits after rebounds in Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht. This is favorable for risk, which means it is favorable for high-beta currencies, which are usually currencies with higher real interest rates. But I don't expect big reactions in the Asian foreign exchange market because the renminbi will play some anchoring role to some extent."

Wells Fargo Emerging Markets Strategist Brendan McKenna:

"The price movement after the Fed meeting is a result of mild position unwinding. There may be more USD buying in Asia, especially against the Japanese yen, Korean won, and Chinese renminbi, while traders may take profits after rebounds in Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht. This favors risk, which means it favors high-beta currencies, which are usually currencies with higher real interest rates. But I don't expect big reactions in the Asian foreign exchange market because the renminbi will play some anchoring role to some extent."

The Asian foreign exchange market will strive to find direction, and there may be some profit taking after the recent rebound. If the data points to a 25 basis point rate cut from now on, the US dollar will strengthen. For the Asian foreign exchange market to continue to rebound, the Federal Reserve may have to cut rates by another 50 basis points. For now, today itself does not provide much direction for the Asian foreign exchange market or even the broader market.

PT Bahana Sekuritas research head Satria Sambijantoro:

The dovish rate cuts actually provide upward momentum for emerging market currencies, so far, rate cuts have not been interpreted as a pessimistic view of the US economy. We expect inflows of foreign capital to ASEAN and Indonesia to continue to grow, while Indonesia is in the 'golden-haired girl zone' of GDP recovery, relatively high credit expansion, and preemptive loose monetary policy.

Senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Kristina Clifton:

Due to the risk of employment data and rising unemployment rates, the exchange rates of the Australian dollar against the US dollar and the New Zealand dollar may fall during the Asian session. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the market's expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut cash rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year may increase and may be brought forward from December to November.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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