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康方生物(9926.HK):依沃西头对头K药数据超预期 有望成为新一代I/O基石 上调目标价

Kangfang Biology (9926.HK): Evosil's head-to-head K drug data exceeds expectations and is expected to become the cornerstone for a new generation of I/O increases in target prices

bocom intl ·  Sep 9

Evosimab's first head-to-head K drug phase III efficacy data is impressive: AK112-303/harmoni-2 study data was presented at the WCLC 2024 Presidential Symposium: PFS HR in the ITT population was 0.51 (mPFS: 11.14 vs. 5.82 months, with K drug data similar to MPFs in KEYNOTE-042), better than market expectations. The 9-month PFS rate 56% vs. 40%, respectively, and the PFS curve continued to widen as follow-up time increased; the ORR and DCR of the Evosi group were also significantly better (50.0% vs. 38.5%, 89.9% vs. 70.5%).

Statistically significant efficacy was achieved in all major subgroups: the PFS HR in subjects with low expression (TPS 1-49%) and high expression (TPS ≥ 50%) of PD-L1 was 0.54 and 0.46, respectively, 0.48 and 0.54 HR for squamous cell cancer and non-squamous cell carcinoma were 0.54 and 0.54, respectively, and HR for brain metastasis and liver metastasis were 0.55 and 0.47, respectively, all similar to the ITT population.

Safety was further verified, and the efficacy and risk characteristics of the product were excellent: the incidence of grade 3 and above TRAE and severe TRAE in the evossi group was 29.4%/20.8%, respectively (vs. 15.6%/16.1% in the K group, but lower than 57.9% of grade 3 and above TRAE in the LEAP-007 trial), and the incidence of TRAE leading to drug discontinuation/death was 1.5%/0.5%, or even lower than 3.0%/1.0% of the K group (LEAP-007:

29.1%/5.2%). Among squamous cell carcinoma subjects, the central type accounted for 72.2% (more likely to have hemoptysis side effects during treatment with bevazide), and there was no significant difference between grade 3 and above and severe TRAE between the two groups (22.2%/18.9% vs. 18.7%/18.7%). All VEGF-related AEs in EVOSIL were grade 1-3, and the bleeding rate was slightly higher than in the K group. Considering that the risk of bleeding significantly inhibits the use of bevacizumab in patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma, Evosil provided a viable VEGF-targeted treatment plan for patients with squamous cell carcinoma.

The target price was raised, and the September gold stock recommendation was reiterated: the company expects that Ivorian 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC will be approved in China on 1H25, and partner Summit will soon launch a global phase III trial Harmoni-7 to target first-line treatment for PD-L1 TPS ≥ 50% NSCLC. Based on excellent clinical data that exceeded expectations, we raised Iwasi's overseas development success rate and sales forecast (which mainly affects the company's long-term revenue forecast), and raised the DCF target price to HK$77.0 (previously HK$72.0), continuing to select the company as the industry's key recommended target and September gold stock.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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