确定换股比例1:0.13，方案符合预期。根据合并预案，公司和中国重工的换股价格按照定价基准日前120 个交易日的均价确定为37.84 元/股和5.05 元/股，由此确定换股比例为1:0.13，即每1股中国重工股票可以换得0.1335 股公司股票。公司异议股东收购请求权价格为换股吸收合并的定价基准日前120 个交易日的中国船舶股票交易均价的80%，即30.27 元/股，合并预案符合预期。occurrences
On September 18, the company announced a merger plan. The share exchange price of the company and China Heavy Industries was determined to be 37.84 yuan/share and 5.05 yuan/share according to the average price of 120 trading days before the pricing benchmark date. From this, it was determined that the exchange ratio was 1:0.13, that is, every 1 share of China Heavy Industries shares can be exchanged for 0.1335 shares of the company.
Management analysis
A stock exchange ratio of 1:0.13 was determined, and the plan was in line with expectations. According to the merger plan, the share exchange price of the company and China Heavy Industries was determined to be 37.84 yuan/share and 5.05 yuan/share according to the average price of 120 trading days before the pricing benchmark date. From this, it was determined that the share exchange ratio was 1:0.13, that is, every 1 share of China Heavy Industries shares can be exchanged for 0.1335 shares of the company. The price of the company's objecting shareholders' acquisition request price is 80% of the average trading price of China Shipping shares in the 120 trading days before, or 30.27 yuan/share. The merger plan is in line with expectations.
The merger will have a scale effect, and I am optimistic that the company's leading position and profitability will increase. According to the announcement of the company and China Heavy Industries, the company is the largest listed shipbuilding company with the most advanced technology and the most complete product structure in China. It has four major shipbuilders: Jiangnan Shipbuilding, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, and CSSC Chengxi. China Heavy Industries is a leading domestic shipbuilding enterprise, and has well-known shipyards such as Dalian Shipbuilding, Wuchang Shipbuilding, and Beihai Shipbuilding. After merging, the two sides will achieve complementary advantages to enhance operational efficiency and overall competitiveness. According to the announcement of the company and China Heavy Industries, the global new ship was completed and delivered 86.34 million dwt in 2023, and the company and China Heavy Industries delivered 753.49 and 4.839 million dwt of civilian ships respectively, with shares of 8.7% and 5.6% respectively. After the merger, the company's global share is expected to reach double digits. At the same time, the merger is expected to have a scale effect, further enhancing the company's leading position and profitability.
The gap between shipbuilding prices and steel prices is widening, and I am optimistic that the company's profitability will continue to increase in the future. On the price side, according to Clarkson statistics, the global new shipbuilding price index has continued to rise since 21Q1. In July '24, the global new shipbuilding price index reached 187.98, +9.05% year-on-year, +0.40% month-on-month, up 50.31% from the bottom of 2020. On the cost side, the average price of 20mm shipbuilding boards in Shanghai in July was -11.47% year-on-month and -4.88% month-on-month. The scissor gap between ship prices and steel prices continued to widen, and I am optimistic that the company's profitability will continue to increase in the future.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 83.5/93.2/104 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 5.587/8.459/11.828 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE is 28/18/13X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
There is a risk that raw material prices will fluctuate, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate, the growth rate of new orders will fall short of expectations, and that implementation of carbon emission reduction policies will fall short of expectations.
