Key points of investment:
Shanghai Xinyang: Traditional business share is declining, and semiconductor materials for wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging drive growth.
The company mainly develops four series of key process materials for integrated circuit manufacturing, including electroplating solutions and additives, cleaning solutions, photoresists, and grinding liquids, and is in the upstream part of the entire industry chain. In addition, the company is also engaged in R&D, production and sales of environmentally friendly and functional coatings (fluorocarbon coating products) to provide customers with professional overall coating business solutions. By the end of '23, the company had 240 R&D personnel, accounting for 26.52%. 24H1 achieved operating income of 0.661 billion yuan, +19.78% YoY; comprehensive gross profit margin of 39.65%, up 5.66 percentage points year on year; R&D investment of 0.097 billion yuan, accounting for 14.69% of total revenue; net profit to mother 0.059 billion yuan, -32.14% YoY (+51.77% YoY after deduction).
Electroplating solutions, additives, cleaning solutions and etching solutions are the company's best products, and their market share is growing rapidly. 1) Electroplating solutions and additives: Used in the two major fields of wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging, mainly including Damascus copper interconnect, TSV, Bumping electroplating solutions and supporting additives. After years of development, technical reserves and close ties with customers, 24H1's revenue from products related to electroplating additives increased rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of more than 80%, and the development and verification of new products is progressing smoothly. 2) Cleaning liquid and etching liquid: Cleaning liquid products after 28nm dry etching have been mass-produced, and cleaning solutions after dry etching at 14nm technology nodes have also been mass-produced and sold. The company's post-dry etching cleaning liquid products have achieved full coverage of 14nm and above technology nodes. Revenue from 24H1 dry etching cleaning solution products increased by nearly 50% year-on-year, and is widely used in wafer manufacturing customers such as logic circuits, analog circuits, and memory devices.
Significant progress and breakthroughs have been made in two major categories of products: photoresists and abrasives. 1) Photoresist: The process performance indicators of I-line and KrF photoresist products have been continuously optimized and improved, and sales of series products increased significantly during the 24H1 period; ArF photoresist research and development progressed smoothly. Immersion photoresist has now carried out testing and verification work on many domestic wafer manufacturers. Some models of products have obtained good test results and process windows. The technical indicators are relatively close to those of the target products. 2) Grinding liquid: STI Slurry, Poly Slurry, and W Slurry series products have been tested and verified by more than 20 clients, and are continuously cooperating with customers to develop new product lines. Among them, W slurry series products have been successfully verified on the client side and have large-scale mass production product performance.
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's 2024E-2026E revenue to be 1.415/1.68/2.014 billion yuan, net profit to mother 0.166/0.233/0.327 billion yuan, and corresponding EPS of 0.53/0.74/1.04 yuan. We used the PE valuation method, referring to the industry average and considering the company's competitive advantage and domestic alternative attributes in the semiconductor materials field, and gave a PE valuation of 45.0X-50.0X in 2025. We believe that the company's reasonable market value is 10.47-11.633 billion yuan, and the corresponding reasonable value range is 33.41-37.12 yuan/share, giving a “superior to the market” rating for the first time.
Risk warning. Downstream demand recovery fell short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuated sharply, promotion of new products fell short of expectations, product verification fell short of expectations, etc.