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美联储、英国央行接连登场,24小时内制造2个爆炸性新闻?

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England took the stage one after another, creating two explosive pieces of news within 24 hours?

Golden10 Data ·  Sep 18 22:37

If the Federal Reserve takes significant interest rate cuts, is there a possibility of an unexpected interest rate cut by the Bank of England?

As traders prepare for the dual impact of the monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, economists say that even if the former chooses to make a significant interest rate cut, it will not prevent the latter from maintaining its rates this week.

The market expects a more than 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points from the current range of 5.25% to 5.50% this week. This would be the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in over four years.

Meanwhile, pricing in the currency market for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting on Thursday dropped from 35% on Tuesday evening to 26% on Wednesday morning, but it is still slightly higher than last week. Prior to this, the UK's CPI inflation rate for August came in as expected at 2.2%, unchanged from July, thus supporting the need for the Bank of England to be more cautious.

Although overall inflation in the UK has been at or near the Bank of England's 2% target for the past five months, service sector inflation, which accounts for 81% of the UK economy, remains stubbornly high, rising from 5.2% in July to 5.6% in August.

The decline in energy prices has led to a decrease in overall inflation, while the core inflation rate (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) has decreased at a significantly slower pace.

Overall inflation in the UK is close to the target, but service sector inflation remains high.
Overall inflation in the UK is close to the target, but service sector inflation remains high.

Deutsche Bank's chief economist Sanjay Raja told CNBC that a more "forceful" rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily change the decision of the Bank of England this week, especially since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) usually approves its decision around lunchtime on Wednesday London time and then announces it on Thursday. The Fed's policy statement is not released until 7 p.m. London time on Wednesday.

However, Raja added, "This could have implications for the MPC's risk management considerations, including opening the door to discussions about the dual risks of inflation and growth facing the economy, and possibly encouraging some MPC members to discuss a faster reduction in restrictive policies."

George Lazarias, Chief Economist at Forvis Mazars, told CNBC on Wednesday that in developed economies, "service sector inflation is rising and the overall decline in inflation is mainly dependent on external factors."

Lazarias explained, "This means that it is too early for both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve to make significant rate cuts." As a result, he does not believe that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points this week, nor does he believe that the Bank of England will cut rates, even to boost a sluggish economic growth.

Furthermore, he pointed out that cutting rates too quickly and too aggressively may force central banks in various countries to raise rates next year, thus damaging their credibility and anchoring inflation expectations. Lazarias believes that the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut is based on bond market positions and does not reflect the views of most strategists.

He said, "The Fed's rate cut may come too late, but it will set the tone for the future path."

The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points at its August meeting, starting its monetary easing policy, but MPC's divisions have raised doubts among market participants as to whether they decided to cut rates until the last moment. At the time, the MPC voted 5 to 4 in favor of the rate cut, with the cautious camp citing concerns about the labor market and the service sector as the main reasons.

Consulting firm Capital Economics said that Wednesday's CPI data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England would hold steady in September and pointed to a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting in November. It added that downward pressure on food and fuel prices was offset by increases in household equipment, entertainment, culture, and airfare prices.

Editor/Lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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