Hot news

• The market is focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with the three major futures indices edging up slightly.

The Federal Reserve will announce the September interest rate decision at 2 am on Thursday Beijing time. As of the time of writing, the three major futures indices are slightly up.

• Growth tech stocks rose across the board before the market opened.

• Intuitive Machines surged nearly 53% in pre-market trading, securing a $4.82 billion contract from NASA.

U.S. space concepts stocks $Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US)$ Surging 53% in pre-market trading, the company has secured a nearly $4.82 billion contract from NASA for a near-space network mission extending from Earth's surface beyond the moon to provide communication and navigation services.

• Apple was surpassed by Xiaomi again after 3 years and fell to the third largest smartphone brand globally in August.

According to a report from well-known consumer electronics industry research firm Counterpoint Research, in the global mobile phone market in the recent month of August, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ for the first time in three years (since August 2021), it was overtaken by Chinese brand $Xiaomi Corp. Unsponsored ADR Class B (XIACY.US)$ , falling to the third largest mobile phone brand in the world.

• United States Steel rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading, and the CEO expressed confidence that the acquisition deal will ultimately receive approval from the US government.

$United States Steel (X.US)$ Pre-market trading in US stocks rose nearly 4%. On the news front, US Steel CEO David Burritt said he was confident that the proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel would ultimately receive US government approval.

• Gevo Inc continued to rise nearly 4% before the market, with a cumulative increase of 131.7% in the past five days.

$Gevo Inc (GEVO.US)$ Continuing to rise nearly 4% before the market, reaching $1.68 per share. The stock soared over 32% at one point yesterday, eventually closing up over 16%. In the past five days, it has continued to rise as much as 131.7%. On the news side, the company recently announced that it has obtained a US patent for the process of converting ethanol to olefins (ETO), further strengthening its leading position in intellectual property rights in the field of bio-renewable fuels and chemicals production.

• The European Court of Justice supports Google's challenge to the 1.49 billion euro antitrust fine by the European Union.

On Wednesday local time, the European General Court backed Google's challenge to a 1.49 billion euro (approximately 1.66 billion US dollars) antitrust fine imposed five years ago for obstructing competitors in the online search advertising field. The General Court, based in Luxembourg, said: 'The court supports most of the European Commission's assessment, but annuls the decision to impose a fine of nearly 1.5 billion euros on Google, particularly because Google failed to consider all relevant circumstances in the assessment of contract terms, which was unfair.' The European Commission imposed the fine on the world's most popular internet search engine in 2019, making it one of three fines totaling 8.25 billion euros that Google has incurred. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ The European General Court, based in Luxembourg, said on Wednesday that it supported Google's challenge to a 1.49 billion euro ($1.66 billion) antitrust fine imposed five years ago for obstructing competitors in the online search advertising field. The court said it supports most of the European Commission's assessment but annuls the decision to impose a fine of nearly 1.5 billion euros on Google, particularly because Google failed to consider all relevant circumstances when assessing contract terms, which was unfair. In 2019, the European Commission fined the world's most popular internet search engine a total of 8.25 billion euros, of which this fine was one of the three penalties.

• Meta may face significant fines from the European Union for alleged monopolistic practices in the classified advertising market.

According to insiders, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Facing significant fines from the European Union for alleged monopolistic practices in the classified advertising market. Reports suggest that the European Union could make a decision as early as next month, which would be one of the final investigations overseen by Margrethe Vestager, the outgoing EU Competition Commissioner. Meta and the European Union have not immediately responded to media requests for comment.

• Good news continues! Intel's call options premiums have doubled and surged.

$Intel (INTC.US)$Yesterday's increase was nearly 3%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10% this week. The trading volume doubled to 0.976 million shares, compared to the average trading volume of the past 30 days. The proportion of call options is 75%. In the options chain, the top five contracts are all call options, among which, the contract with the highest trading volume is the one with a strike price of $22 expiring this Friday, reaching 0.087 million shares, with an open interest of 0.045 million shares.

In addition, the premiums of multiple call options expiring this Friday have seen significant gains, with the premiums of contracts with strike prices of $26.5 and $27 doubling.

Global macro

• Tonight, the world is paying close attention! The "giant ship" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will officially set sail.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision for September at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday. Currently, it is widely expected that the Fed will announce its first rate cut in four years at this meeting. However, at the same time, there is fierce debate and disagreement about how much the Fed policymakers will cut the rate - whether it will be a more conventional 25 basis points cut or a more aggressive first step of a direct 50 basis points cut.

• What are the risks to the market if interest rates are cut by 50 basis points?

Goldman Sachs traders believe that the current market pricing for a 50 basis points rate cut is aggressive and carries the risk of expectations being disappointed. The pace of subsequent rate cuts may also be slower than market expectations. If the Fed fails to cut rates by the expected 50 basis points, unprecedentedly large contracts for federal funds will be forced to be significantly repriced, and all asset classes will suffer losses.

• Another major bank is strongly bullish on gold: It is expected to reach $2,900 next year!

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates this week, supporting the gold price. The gold price is currently hovering near recent highs of over $2,500 per ounce. Commodity strategies from ANZ Bank and Senior Commodity Strategies believe that with the Fed preparing for rate cuts, a technical breakthrough above $2,550 per ounce should continue to attract the attention of bullish investors. Analysts predict that by the end of next year, the gold price will rise to $2,900 per ounce.

• What will happen if Trump loses the US presidential election? Polls show that nearly half of Republicans will not accept the election results.

Currently, as the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Harris will have the ultimate showdown. According to a new survey, 46% of Republican respondents said that if the Democratic candidate wins, they will not accept the legitimacy of the election results. 14% of Republicans said that if the Democratic candidate wins, they will take action to overturn the election results.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 USA August total annualized new home starts

20:30 Total building permits in the US in August

Next day

01:30 US Treasury Secretary Yellen speaks on Biden's economic agenda

02:00 Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary

02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds monetary policy press conference

Editor/Somer