本次签订合同为3.5 亿元（含税）的GLP-1 多肽原料药项目，合同履约期限为签署之日起至2025 年12 月31 日。若合同顺利实施，有利于提升公司的持续盈利能力，对公司业务发展及经营业绩将产生积极影响。与此同时，公司产能处于加速释放阶段，“年产395 千克多肽原料药生产线项目”预计将于2024 年年底进入试生产阶段，“多肽创新药 CDMO、原料药产业化项目”预计将于2025 年投产，该项目中原料药产能有望从目前 404kg/a 提升至 850kg/a。公司GLP-1 原料药产能爬坡叠加大订单释放，有望贡献丰厚业绩。Incidents:
On September 17, Shengnuo Biotech issued the “Notice Concerning the Signing of Major Daily Operating Contracts for Wholly-owned Subsidiaries”. Shengnuo Pharmaceuticals, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, recently signed a “Product Purchase Contract” with a customer to supply GLP-1 peptide APIs to the other party. The contract amount is no more than RMB 0.35 billion (tax included).
The signing of new orders and the release of production capacity are expected to increase the company's performance:
The contract was signed for the GLP-1 polypeptide API project worth 0.35 billion yuan (tax included). The contract performance period is from the date of signing to December 31, 2025. If the contract is successfully implemented, it is conducive to improving the company's continuous profitability and will have a positive impact on the company's business development and operating performance. At the same time, the company's production capacity is in the accelerated release stage. The “395 kg polypeptide API production line project” is expected to enter trial production by the end of 2024, and the “Innovative Peptide Drug CDMO and API Industrialization Project” is expected to be put into operation in 2025. The production capacity of APIs in this project is expected to increase from the current 404 kg/a to 850 kg/a. The company's GLP-1 API production capacity is climbing and increasing order release, which is expected to contribute to rich results.
The company has frequent advantages, and medium- to long-term development is improving:
Against the backdrop of the high popularity of the peptide industry at home and abroad, the company's integrated advantages in the peptide industry chain are expected to continue to benefit. This order further confirms the company's strong strength in the field of peptides. On the basis of the continuous release of production capacity, the company is expected to enter a period of rapid growth. Recently, there have been many benefits for the company. At the end of August, the controlling shareholder, Sichuan Sino Investment, plans to transfer 7.00% of the company's total share capital to the Chuanfa Relief Fund through an agreement transfer, which will help the company improve its asset quality and win-win development; in early September, the company plans to invest 30 million yuan to subscribe for 22.78% of the Tanzanian target company's shares, which is conducive to further expanding the international layout of the company's peptide products. This order injects reassurance into the company's performance acceleration. We are optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term development.
Investment advice:
Considering new orders and production capacity release, we raised the company's profit forecast. The company's revenue side for 2024-2026 is 0.596 billion yuan, 1.025 billion yuan, and 1.341 billion yuan, respectively. The year-on-year revenue growth rates are 36.94%, 72.09%, and 30.76%, respectively. Net profit to mother is estimated to be 0.106 billion yuan, 0.196 billion yuan, and 0.248 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively In billion yuan, net profit to mother grew by 50.95%, 84.57%, and 26.57%, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 32.23, 17.46, and 13.79 times, respectively. Maintain the recommendation and give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
Risk of R&D falling short of expectations, risk of order fluctuation, and risk of increased industry competition.