Q2 末铜箔行业整体加工费触底回升。根据IFIND，2023 年6μm 锂电铜箔加工费均值为2.5 万元/吨，同比22 年下滑38.9%，24 年Q1/Q2 行业平均加工费分别为1.61/1.60 万元/吨，分别同比下滑51.6%/33.0%，24Q2 环比24Q1 下滑0.66%，24 年6/7/8 月份铜箔加工费分别为1.73/1.74/1.70 万元/吨，加工费6 月开始整体相比24 年4-5 月份触底回升。Matters:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.211 billion yuan, and achieved net profit attributable to mother -0.052 billion, -254.6% year-on-year, and realized net profit deducted from non-return mother -0.077 billion, -469.3% year-on-year; in the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.249 billion yuan, +53.9% year-on-year, and realized net profit to mother of -0.002 billion yuan, narrowing year-on-year 79.7%, a contraction of 95.6% month-on-month, achieving net non-net profit deduction of -0.016 billion, a year-on-year narrowing of 17.6% and a month-on-month narrowing of 73.3%.
Commentary:
At the end of Q2, the overall processing costs of the copper foil industry bottomed out and rebounded. According to IFIND, the average processing fee for 6 μm lithium copper foil in 2023 was 0.025 million/ton, down 38.9% from year 22, the average processing fee for the Q1/Q2 industry in 24 was 0.0161/0.016 million/ton, respectively, down 51.6%/33.0% year on year, 24Q2 fell 0.66% month-on-month from 24Q1, and 0.0173/0.0174 million/ Tons, processing costs began in June and rebounded overall compared to the bottom in April-May '24.
The company's production and sales continued to grow at a high rate, and Q2 profit margins improved markedly. In the first half of '24, the company's total nominal production capacity of copper foil was 0.0555 million tons/year. The capacity utilization rate was 104.45%, which remained high, and the revenue scale maintained high growth. Q2's gross profit margin in a single quarter was 4.0%, down 0.7 pcts year on year, up 3.6 pcts month on month, net profit margin after deduction of -1.3%, up 1.1 pcts year on year, up 5.0 pcts month on month, and profit margin level improved markedly from month to month.
Financial stability continues to be maintained, and investment in R&D is increased. At the end of 24H1, the company's balance ratio was 36.19%, which remained low. Monetary capital was 0.653 billion yuan, transactional financial assets were 1.136 billion yuan (mainly large deposit certificates), and capital remained abundant. In 2014, H1 spent 0.083 billion yuan on R&D, +50% over the same period last year, and continued to increase investment in R&D of new products.
Investment advice: Despite intensifying competition in the industry and widespread pressure on profits, the company maintained the growth in copper foil shipments with excellent cost control, and the company's profit margin of 24Q2 began to recover. We expect the industry's profit to bottom out, and the company's profit level is expected to gradually recover; considering the impact of the rapid rise in copper prices in the first half of the year, we expect the company's net profit to mother for 24-26 to be 0.04/0.156/0.252 billion yuan respectively (previous values were 0.058/0.161/0.275 billion yuan, respectively), maintaining the “recommended” evaluation grade.
Risk warning: NEV sales fall short of expectations; competition intensifies due to accelerated industry expansion; progress in new technology exceeds expectations and squeezes the traditional lithium battery copper foil market
