Source: Caixin.
Author: Xiaoxiang. In 23, the company's overall sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, with a YoY increase of 28.10%, showing significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan was 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively.

Claudia Sahm, former economist at the Federal Reserve and the proposer of the famous recession warning indicator 'Sam's Rule,' said on Tuesday that although the U.S. economy is not in a recession, the weakness in the labor market could worry the Fed and lead to a 50 basis point rate cut at this week's interest rate meeting.

Sam said in a forum speech, 'If the Fed really sticks to the policy-making principles based on data, the path it may take this time is to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.'

'A considerable amount of labor market data is running in a certain direction and is not good. The Fed has always been very supportive of its dual mandate to maximize employment,' Sam pointed out.

According to the schedule, the Fed will announce its September interest rate decision at 2:00 am Beijing time tomorrow, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference half an hour later at 2:30 am as usual. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders in the interest rate futures market currently predict a 64% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, and a 36% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

It is worth mentioning that just a week ago, the pricing in the interest rates futures market mostly expected the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. However, with the famous journalist Nick Timiraos, also known as the "new Fed news agency," repeatedly stating in his articles that the "first interest rate cut amount is still uncertain," and senior figures such as former New York Fed President William Dudley calling on Fed policymakers to take more aggressive action, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut has instead gained the upper hand.

Sam is the inventor of the economic recession warning indicator, the "Sam Rule," which has accurately predicted every U.S. economic recession since 1970. The "Sam Rule" refers to the situation where once the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds 0.5 percentage points or more above the lowest three-month moving average in the past 12 months, it often indicates that a U.S. economic recession is about to begin.

Last month, after the non-farm data showed the U.S. unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in July, the "Sam Rule" crossed the threshold of 0.5 percentage points mentioned above. Although the data at the beginning of this month showed the U.S. unemployment rate dropping to 4.2% in August, due to the rise in the base number, the difference shown by the "Sam Rule" further increased to 0.57 percentage points.

However, regarding the current situation of the U.S. economy, Sam stated that the U.S. has not actually entered a recession yet, as the "Sam Rule" fails to consider the current unusual economic cycle. This indicator is an economic recession indicator, not a forecasting tool.

In addition to how much the rate cut will be at the September meeting, another important focus of the Federal Reserve's decision tonight is undoubtedly the latest quarterly "Summary of Economic Projections" (SEP) released by the FOMC, which will also include the well-known dot plot of interest rates.

Sam is concerned that these latest forecasts may cause market worries, as most Fed officials are likely to outline a long-term interest rate path that is lower than what some market participants expect.

She expects that the Fed's rate cut and new SEP forecasts will stem from an understanding of recent inflation data and the weakness in the labor market.

Editor/Jeffy