建议关注：紫金矿业(601899.SH)、中金黄金(600489.SH)、赤峰黄金(600988.SH)、山东黄金(600547.SH)、山金国际(000975.SZ)、株冶集团(600961.SH)、湖南白银(002716.SZ)。In the short term, macro factors may dominate the fluctuation of copper prices. Weakness in US inflation and employment data, coupled with a 50bp probability increase in the Fed's September rate cut, led to a rebound in copper prices.
Wisdom Finance app learned that Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that the 50bp probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. In addition, the US fiscal deficit has exceeded expectations, leading to a historic high in gold prices. In August, the US fiscal deficit exceeded expectations, raising inflation expectations. The two logics of US monetary policy and fiscal policy resonate, leading to a historic high in gold prices. In the short term, the market is gradually pricing in a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September, awaiting the realization of next week's FOMC rate decision. Long-term, Huayuan Securities believes that in the context of dual US monetary and fiscal policy easing, US dollar credit contraction, and escalating geopolitical events, gold is expected to be in an upward trend in the medium to long term.
Precious Metals Sector: The 50bp probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, coupled with the US fiscal deficit exceeding expectations, leading to a historic high in gold prices. London spot gold rose by 2.75%, Shanghai gold rose by 1.73%, London spot silver rose by 3.90%, Shanghai silver rose by 2.47%, palladium rose by 11.10%, and platinum rose by 6.64%. This week, US August CPI and PPI were both below expectations, with inflation continuing to decline and soft employment data, leading to the market's increased expectation of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September. According to Fedwatch, the probability of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September is 50% (previously 25%). On the other hand, in the September presidential debate, Harris performed better, increasing the probability of winning, and with the US fiscal deficit exceeding expectations in August, concerns have arisen in the market about the rapid growth of the US fiscal deficit, leading to an increase in inflation expectations. The two logics of US monetary policy and fiscal policy resonate, leading to a historic high in gold prices. Short-term, the market is beginning to gradually price in a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September, awaiting the realization of next week's FOMC rate decision. Long-term, Huayuan Securities believes that in the context of dual US monetary and fiscal policy easing, US dollar credit contraction, and escalating geopolitical events, gold is expected to be in an upward trend in the medium to long term.
Recommendations: Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), China Gold (600489.SH), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Shandong Jin International (000975.SZ), Zhuzhou Smelter Group (600961.SH), and Hunan Silver (002716.SZ).
Copper Sector: Macro factors dominate short-term volatility, downstream operation recovery, continuous inventory digestion, and copper price rebound. This week, London copper rose by 0.77% and Shanghai copper rose by 1.25%; London copper inventory fell by 1.91% and Shanghai copper inventory fell by 13.86%. Smelting costs are $4.6 per ton; sulfuric acid prices fell by 4.80%, with copper smelting gross profit at -1224 yuan per ton, expanding losses. In the short term, macro factors may dominate the fluctuation of copper prices, with weakening US inflation and employment data leading to an increased probability of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September and a copper price rebound. Fundamentally, this week's electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 81.72%, a 3.57% increase month-on-month. This week, Shanghai copper inventory is 0.1855 million tons, a 13.86% decrease compared to last period, London copper inventory is 0.3115 million tons, a 1.91% decrease compared to last period, and SMM social inventory is 0.2169 million tons, a 15.17% decrease compared to last period. In the medium to long term, the issue of mineral shortage in the copper supply side has not been resolved, and it will take a long time for capital expenditure to be translated into output. The supply rigidity remains unchanged, and it is expected that there is significant room for long-term copper price increase.
Recommendations: Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993.SH), JCHX Mining Management (603979.SH), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630.SZ), and undervalued HBIS Resources (000923.SZ).
Aluminum Sector: Increased downstream reserve demand before the festival, electrolytic aluminum inventory digestion, and aluminum price rebound. Tight supply of raw materials coupled with production line maintenance has led to strong aluminum oxide prices. This week, London aluminum rose by 1.38% and Shanghai aluminum rose by 2.46%; in terms of inventory, London aluminum inventory fell by 1.51% and Shanghai aluminum inventory fell by 0.76%, with spot inventory falling by 5.80%. In terms of raw materials, this week, aluminum oxide prices rose by 0.89%, with anode prices remaining constant, and aluminum company gross profit rising by 25.52% to 2471 yuan per ton. This week, domestic aluminum spot inventory has decreased significantly, mainly due to increased downstream reserve demand before the festival, improved spot transactions, and rising aluminum prices. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, domestic ore supply is tight, and there is an expected reduction in imported ore supply due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea. Several areas in the north are experiencing reduced production due to ore and equipment maintenance, resulting in high aluminum oxide prices. The follow-up will need to continue to monitor the demand situation for the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in the southwest region, as well as the pace of release of new aluminum oxide production capacity.
Recommendations: Aluminum Corporation of China (02600, 601600.SH, alumina), Sunstone Development (603036.SH, anode materials), Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation (002128.SZ), Tianshan Aluminum Group (002532.SZ), Yunnan Aluminium (000807.SZ), Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power (000933.SZ), Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Manufacturing (000612.SZ).
Small Metal Sector: Tracking small metal prices: Cadmium increased by 0.44%, molybdenum concentrate/titanium concentrate/tungsten concentrate/silicon manganese/vanadium pentoxide/manganese ore decreased by 0.79%/1.34%/1.42%/1.72%/1.97%/2.38%.
This week, small metal prices generally fell. Recommendations: Antimony: Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH), Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH); Tungsten: China Tungsten and Hightech Materals (000657.SZ), Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ), Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH), Guangdong Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ); Indium: Yunnan Tin Co.,Ltd. (000960.SZ), Zhuzhou Smelter Group (600961.SH), Huludao Zinc Industry (000751.SZ); Manganese: Western Region Gold (601069.SH).
Risk reminder: Risk of lower-than-expected downstream production recovery; Risk of sluggish domestic real estate demand; Risk of US economic recession; Risk of lower-than-expected growth in new energy vehicle industry; Risk of overseas geopolitical events.
