According to Zhitong Finance APP, Founder Securities has released a research report stating that it strongly recommends a rating for xpeng-W (09868), with expected revenues of 50.139/73.506/121.651 billion yuan and net income attributable to the mother of -8.637/-1.691/2.361 billion yuan, with EPS of -4.55/-0.89/1.24 yuan. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved record-high revenues and gross margins, reaching 14.66 billion yuan and 13.5% respectively. The MONA M03 launched in August demonstrated blockbuster potential early in its market debut.

The main points of Zheng Securities are as follows:

The product matrix and technology platform have accumulated steadily, while the organizational management structure is actively seeking change.

Xpeng has Mona, P, G, and X series, covering the main vehicle market segments priced from 0.1-0.4 million yuan. In terms of financial performance, in the first half of 2024, the company achieved historical highs in revenue and gross margin, reaching 14.66 billion yuan and 13.5% respectively. Losses significantly narrowed to -2.65 billion yuan. By establishing five major virtual committees and multiple product matrices, the company achieved efficient cross-departmental coordination and a closed-loop product development. Subsequently, senior executives including Wang Fengying joined Xpeng, with direct and distribution systems merging, channel structure optimization, the "Jupiter Plan" proposed, and further innovative changes in the company's management structure. This was followed by the creation of the Fuyao platform, X-EEA, and a series of technological reserves.

A new product cycle is taking off, with strong upward trends expected for new products.

2024: In August 2024, the MONA M03 was launched, serving as Xpeng's first compact sedan. With its high level of intelligence and performance that surpasses competitors in practicality, endurance, and cabin experience, it quickly became a market focus, demonstrating blockbuster potential early in its market debut. Additionally, the Xpeng P7+ is planned to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 25% reduction in technical costs, expected to bring strong competitive advantages in autonomous driving and space. 2025-2026: Xpeng's new product cycle is expected to continue, with plans to launch four or more new vehicles in 2025 to further expand the product matrix.

The long-term construction of autonomous driving solutions can be expected with a solid foundation and steady development.

Xpeng, through in-house development of full-stack technology, continues to upgrade its autonomous driving solutions, ranking among the top intelligent driving enterprises in China. Recently, Xpeng released the AI Falcon Vision solution and plans to achieve L3 functionality with L2 hardware, with the full deployment of an end-to-end vision-based solution in sight. At the same time, the in-house developed Turing chip has successfully entered production, providing powerful computing power for advanced intelligent driving. In the future, the cost of smart hardware is expected to significantly decrease, with projected decreases to 0.008/0.007 million yuan by 2025/2026. On Xpeng Technology Day on October 24, the company is expected to showcase its advanced autonomous driving solutions. The domestically leading end-to-end vision-based solution aims to achieve technology equality and make the price of vehicles equipped with it fall below 0.2 million yuan.

Sales are expected to double and the downward trend in costs is clear.

In terms of sales, Xpeng has maintained a pace of launching a new model every year from 2020 to 2023, with an expected acceleration of product launch and sales volume from 2024 to 2026, reaching 0.182, 0.309, and 0.529 million units. In terms of costs, the dual drivers of technology cost reduction and business cost reduction, along with continuous optimization of collaboration with Volkswagen for procurement and autonomous driving, body structure, and electronic architecture, are expected to result in sustained cost reduction. In addition, economies of scale are expected to bring significant improvements in depreciation and expenses, and combined with collaboration income from Volkswagen in pure electric platforms, electronic and electrical architectures, and joint procurement, it will drive the company's profit inflection point to accelerate.