In the morning of the 18th trading, the following three points should be noted.
Stance of aiming for pullbacks while predicting the trends in futures and foreign exchange markets.
■ Park24, 3Q Operating Profit Increases by 9.1% to 26.6 billion yen
Noteworthy material in the morning: Koito Manufacturing, increased production of car lamps, and 33 billion yen investment in Mexico and Brazil over 5 years.
Stance of aiming for pullbacks while predicting the trends in futures and foreign exchange markets.
The Japanese stock market on the 18th started with buying momentum but is expected to have a directionless market development ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). In the US market on the 17th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 15 points while the Nasdaq rose by 35 points. The unexpected increase in US retail sales in August caused some retreat in the expectations of a significant 0.50% interest rate cut by the FOMC. There is also a possibility of a 0.25% rate cut, leading to selling pressure from position adjustments. The settlement price of the Chicago Nikkei 225 futures was 36,410 yen, 400 yen higher than in Osaka. The yen is trading around 142.10 yen against the US dollar.
The Nikkei average is expected to start with buying momentum as it converges with the Chicago futures market. The movement that had incorporated a significant interest rate cut in the US has slightly retreated. The US long-term interest rates have risen and the yen exchange rate, which had entered the 139 yen range against the US dollar, has stopped strengthening and is now in the 142 yen range. Therefore, there may be a tendency for repositioning in the morning, inviting buying with the aim of autonomous rebound against the previous day's decline.
In addition, the Nikkei 225 futures rose from 36,000 yen during the night session and ended above the -1σ of the Bollinger Bands. If the firmness around 36,200 yen, which is about -1σ, is recognized, it is likely that there will be buying back by sellers. While active trading is limited ahead of the FOMC results, the stance of aiming for pullbacks while predicting the trends in futures and foreign exchange markets is expected. Furthermore, although the VIX index in the US has risen, it is still below 20.00, so there may be limited selling pressure. After a round of buying, the market may become stagnant, and in a weak situation, we would like to respond with buying back.
As for the market outlook, there is awareness of buybacks from the end of the strong yen and a shift towards export-related trades, as well as the strategy of targeting pullbacks in financial stocks post the FOMC, etc. Additionally, while the NASDAQ is rising, the soft performance of semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia has had a significant impact on the index, indicating a potential move towards sell-offs on high-tech stocks. It is believed that there is a sense of stability despite the standoff, and individual funds are likely to be directed towards theme-oriented small and mid-cap stocks, etc.
■ Park24, 3Q Operating Profit Increases by 9.1% to 26.6 billion yen
Park24 <4666> announced its performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending October 2024, with revenue increasing by 11.9% to 270.216 billion yen compared to the same period last year, and operating profit increasing by 9.1% to 26.61 billion yen. The number of members and usage has been steadily increasing due to the implementation of campaigns to improve convenience and promote usage. The number of additional vehicles was 7,603, and the number of rental outlets increased to 3,101, resulting in an increase in usage fees per vehicle despite the increase in the number of vehicles, tailored to demand and regional characteristics.
Materials of concern in the morning session
・NASDAQ Composite Index is up (17,628.06, +35.93)
・1 Dollar = 142.10-20 Yen
・Chicago Nikkei Futures are up (36,410, Osaka +400)
・SOX index is up (4,912.10, +1.66)
- US crude oil futures rose (71.19, +1.10).
Long-term US interest rates fell.
USAInflationExpecting a calming period.
Active share buybacks
Request for improvement in corporate value by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
- Nachi-Fujikoshi Corporation <6474> introduced a new hydraulic unit, reducing power consumption by up to 74%.
Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. <7276> to increase production of car lamps, investing 33 billion yen in Mexico and Brazil over 5 years.
Mitsubishi UFJ <8306> invests in Sakana AI, becoming the largest domestic investor.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> enters into a strike with Boeing in the USA, raising concerns about the impact on Japan's aircraft industry.
Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. <4967> to establish a dedicated department next year for preventing recurring health damage.
Mitsubishi Corporation <8058> considers hydrogen and ammonia production in the USA, in collaboration with Exxon.
Toyoda Gosei <7282> and Jtekt to supply components for Toyota's portable hydrogen cartridge.
Takuma <6013> Takuma Energy to sell non-fossil proof certificates derived from waste power generation to electricity retailers.
Komatsu <6301> President Keiji Ogawa, addressing environmental concerns with mining machinery.
- JFEHD <5411> JFE Steel, start operating the foundation in the virtual space of the iron and steel process.
- Hagiwara Kogyo <7856> recycled used plastic packaging materials in sandbags for reuse, reducing virgin materials with Kashima.
- Petroleum Resource Development <1662> adopted the CCS project plan, with basic facility design in East Niigata by Mitsubishi Gas Chemical and 3 other companies.
- Asahi Kasei <3407> increased prices for MMA monomer and other products on the 9th.
☆ Schedule of events in the morning session
- 08:50 August trade balance (forecast: -1.4324 trillion yen, July: -628.7 billion yen).
- 08:50 July machinery core orders (month-on-month forecast: +0.5%, June: +2.1%).
September government monthly economic report
07:45 NZ - Q4-6 term current account balance (forecast: -3.943 billion NZD)