Futu Financial News app learned that Furui released a research report stating that it lowered the target price of Hang Seng Bank (00011) from HKD 80 to HKD 79, with a rating of "underperform the market"; it also lowered the target price of Bank of East Asia (00023) from HKD 10 to HKD 9.5, with a rating of "hold". Furui still believes that Hang Seng's non-performing loans (NPLs) have not yet peaked, and the coverage ratio of interest expenses for Hong Kong commercial real estate remains tight due to high vacancy rates and falling rents, even if the interest rate is lowered by 150 basis points.

The bank pointed out that due to recent changes in interest rate expectations, it updated its forecast model for Hong Kong banks and lowered the average interest rate forecast for the 2025 fiscal year by about 150 basis points, which means that the interest rate of the Federal Reserve in the third quarter of 2025 will be 3.25%. The market's expectations for Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) are currently quite conservative, limiting further downside potential for the stock; due to its high sensitivity and weak asset growth, Hang Seng Bank's performance may be weaker.

Furui believes that the market consensus on Bank of China Hong Kong is already conservative enough. The net interest margin in the second quarter is more resilient than market expectations, coupled with strict control and continuous regional distribution, there is room for exceeding expectations in terms of costs, loan growth, and more. Hang Seng Bank's net interest income for the first half of the year has already fallen by 9% compared to the previous year. If the net interest margin further slows down, the year-on-year decline in net interest income in the second half of the year may expand. The bank believes that the pressure on net interest margin next year will only intensify, so the bank's forecast for Hang Seng's 2025 fiscal year earnings per share and dividend per share is 7% to 8% lower than market expectations.