Today, after the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened lower and rose higher. As of 11:30, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.48%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.47%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.23%. Among them, real estate stocks surged across the board, with Kaisa Group soaring over 40%, Wharf REIC rising by 4.56%, CK Asset rising by 4.55%, Logan Group surging by 3.9%, and New World Dev rising by 3.41%. In terms of news, Kaisa Group disclosed significant progress in debt restructuring; in addition, market expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve are expected to boost Hong Kong's property market sentiment.

Analysts point out that the expectation of a significant rate cut by the US Federal Reserve may be one of the main reasons for the strong performance of the Hong Kong market. According to CME's FedWatch tool, currently 62% of market participants expect a 50 basis point rate cut. China International Capital Corporation believes that because the Hong Kong stock market is highly sensitive to changes in external liquidity and is influenced by the Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate System, the Hong Kong stock market's reaction to the rate cut by the US Federal Reserve may be more significant than that of the A-share market.

Major surge

On Mid-Autumn Festival (September 17th), the Hong Kong stock market opened normally, and the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened lower and rose higher. As of 11:30, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.48%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.47%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.23%.

In terms of market performance, real estate stocks surged across the board, with Kaisa Group soaring over 40%, Wharf REIC surging by 4.56%, CK Asset rising by 4.55%, Logan Group rising by 3.9%, Yuexiu Property rising by 3.45%, and New World Dev rising by 3.41%.

In terms of news, Kaisa Group announced that holders of approximately 75.11% of the outstanding principal amount of debt within the Kaisa Group scope and holders of approximately 81.07% of the outstanding principal amount of debt within the Ruijing scope have joined the restructuring support agreement.

In addition, the market expects that the expectation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve will boost sentiment in the Hong Kong property market. The latest data from Centaline Property shows that 15 transactions were recorded in the top ten housing estates in Hong Kong over the weekend, an increase of 87.5% compared to 8 transactions recorded last weekend, and the transaction volume reached a new high in the past six months. Chen Wing-kit, Vice Chairman and President of the Residential Department of Centaline Property Asia-Pacific, said that the market generally expects the US Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut at the interest rate meeting. The recent market sentiment has continued to improve, and the property market sentiment is also positive. Many buyers are seizing the opportunity to absorb inventory before the rate cut, driving a significant increase in property viewings and transaction volume. It is believed that the Hong Kong property market will continue to recover after the rate cut.

Today, Midea Group Co., Ltd. officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has also triggered a hot market speculation of funds, and the stock price surged nearly 10% at one point.

According to the results of the IPO, Midea Group received a subscription ratio of 5.31 times during the public offering stage. The final number of shares offered for sale is approximately 28.2978 million shares, accounting for about 5% of the total shares offered for sale. A total of 13,717 valid applications were received, and all 13,717 applications were accepted. The probability of receiving H-shares upon applying for one lot is approximately 100%.

Other Asia-Pacific stock markets saw mixed performance, with the Japanese stock market experiencing intense selling pressure and the Nikkei 225 index plummeting over 2%; the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to 8,148.8 points, reaching a new record high.

Analysts believe that Japan's recent signal of continuing rate hikes has dampened bullish sentiment in the Japanese stock market. Former Bank of Japan official Watanabe Tsutomu stated that the pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may be faster than many people currently expect, and the Bank of Japan should strive to better communicate these measures to ensure that the market does not panic.

Regarding the future of the Japanese stock market, Ding Luming, Chief Analyst of Guosen Securities Wealth Allocation, stated that historical patterns indicate the need to pay attention to the impact of the Bank of Japan's independent rate hikes on the Japanese stock market.

Stimulus from the Federal Reserve

The anticipation of a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be one of the main reasons for the strength of the Hong Kong market.

Currently, the market's expectations for a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week are continuously rising. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, 62% of market participants currently expect a 50 basis point rate cut.

Analysts from China International Capital Corporation pointed out that the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve has had a positive impact on the Hong Kong stock market.

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates significantly as expected by the market, it may provide a certain level of support to the market and potentially promote a rebound. China International Capital Corporation believes that due to the sensitivity of the Hong Kong stock market to external liquidity changes and the impact of the Hong Kong linked exchange rate system, the reaction of the Hong Kong stock market to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may be more significant than that of the A-share market.

China International Capital Corporation stated that the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the Hong Kong stock market mainly manifests in the following aspects:

Improved liquidity: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will improve global liquidity conditions, reduce funding costs, and have a positive effect on the Hong Kong stock market. The Hong Kong stock market is sensitive to changes in external liquidity and will directly benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

Increased valuation: Interest rate cuts usually lead to a decline in bond yields, thereby increasing the relative attractiveness of the stock market. This may lead to an increase in the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market, especially for rate-sensitive growth sectors such as biotechnology and technology hardware.

Local economic impact: Due to the implementation of the linked exchange rate system in Hong Kong, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will lead to a decrease in local financing costs and stimulate economic activity. This may have a positive impact on local dividend and real estate sectors in the Hong Kong stock market.

Benefit to export chain: The United States is an important trading partner of China, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may stimulate the US economy and increase demand for Chinese export products, thereby benefiting export-related companies in the Hong Kong stock market.

According to recent tracking data from Guosen Securities, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index has reached 8.6%, which is at its highest level in the corresponding phase of the economic cycle and has strong attractiveness. It is estimated that the lowest level of the Hang Seng Index will reach 16,700-16,800 points, which is about 600 points away from the latest level. This means that the cost-effectiveness of buying Hong Kong stocks is already high at this time.

Overall, global markets are waiting for the bullish signal of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the relative strength of AH stocks this week may also have a certain guiding role for the subsequent market trends.

Editor/Lambor