1）在2024年的基础上，增加发放4.5万吨R32内用配额、0.8万吨R245fa内用生产配额、20吨R41内用生产配额、50吨R236ea生产配额（非内用），其余品种配额与2024年保持一致。增加发放的配额按照原制冷剂的各企业市占率进行发放。According to Zhuochuang Information, the quoted price of R32 from large factories this week has been increased to 0.038 million yuan/ton, and the continued rise in product prices after the quota policy is implemented indicates the attribution of pricing power in the industry chain.
On September 14th, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the draft proposal for the total allocation and distribution of ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbon quotas for 2025, with the following specific details:
1. Third-generation refrigerants:
1) Based on 2024, additional quotas will be issued for internal use of 0.045 million tons of R32, production of 0.008 million tons of R245fa for internal use, production of 20 tons of R41 for internal use, and production of 50 tons of R236ea for non-internal use. The additional quotas will be issued based on the market share of the original refrigerant companies.
2) The inter-category reallocation rules are basically consistent with 2024, and the annual cumulative adjustment amount shall not exceed 10% of the quota for the category, and the number of adjustments remains twice a year.
2. Second-generation refrigerants:
1) The total production quota for second-generation refrigerants in 2025 is 0.1636 million tons, with half for internal use and half for export, which is a cumulative reduction of 67.5% for production quota and 73.2% for internal use quota compared to the baseline value, in line with the requirements of the Montreal Protocol.
Specifically for different varieties, the production quota for R22 in 2025 is 0.1491 million tons, a decrease of 0.0328 million tons compared to 2024, with a reduction rate of 18%. The domestic use quota is 0.0809 million tons, a decrease of 0.031 million tons compared to 2024, with a reduction rate of 27.7%. Other varieties have larger reductions.
In terms of quota utilization, the cumulative reduction rate for the room air conditioner industry in 2025 is 70%, the cumulative reduction rate for commercial air conditioning is 67.5%, and the cumulative reduction rate for cleaning industry is 89%, etc.
Overall, compared to the market rumors two weeks ago (which speculated an additional quota of 0.045 million tons and an annual cumulative adjustment rate of 30%), this quota plan is more than expected. Compared to 2024, R32's domestic use quota has only increased by 0.01 million tons.
The market needs to pay attention to:
1) Compared to the 2024 quota plan, the 2025 quota plan only made minor adjustments based on the actual market supply and demand, without changing the foundation set by the 2024 quota plan. Therefore, the previous market's most pessimistic concerns, such as returning to the Kigali Amendment, are unfounded. Market expectations for policies are improving marginally.
2) The R32 quotas issued in 2024 and 2025 are both for domestic use, while markets such as the USA are becoming increasing demand markets for R32 (as a result of the trend of R454b gradually replacing overseas R410a). Therefore, future foreign trade prices are expected to surpass domestic prices.
3) According to Zhuochuang News, the weekly quote for R32 from large factories has already risen to 0.038 million yuan/ton. After the quota policy is implemented, the product price continues to rise, indicating that the pricing power of the industry chain belongs to the producers.
4) The reduction of the domestic use quota for R22 by nearly 30% indicates that price elasticity can be expected next year.
Previously, the stock price had already undergone excessive adjustments due to various policy expectations. Currently, institutions believe that the stock price has a prominent cost-performance ratio after stabilizing.
Refrigerant-related companies:
Dongyue Group (00189): The subsidiary Dongyue Organosilicon Materials has reported a profit, and it is expected that the company's net profit for the first half of the year will be about RMB 62-68 million, a turnaround from a loss of RMB 192 million in the same period last year. This is mainly due to an increase in product output, sales volume and revenue, as well as a decrease in unit production costs and an increase in gross margin. Dongyue Group has the highest global production capacity for R22. In addition, Dongyue Group's refrigerant products include more than 10 varieties such as R32, R125, and R134a, and these varieties have all experienced varying degrees of price increases since the beginning of this year.