#黄金Technical analysis#24K99讯 On Monday (September 16), spot gold continued its upward trend and reached a record high in the intraday period. On Tuesday, investors will welcome key US retail sales data. Its performance may have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's decision this week. It is expected that the gold market will fluctuate sharply after the data is released.
Supported by the weakening dollar and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply this week, the increase in gold prices extended to close to a record high on Monday.
Spot gold closed up 0.14% to 2582.34 US dollars/ounce on Monday; the price of gold hit an intraday high of 2589.68 US dollars/ounce, setting a new record high.
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, supported by the weakening dollar. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates more than expected boosted gold. The fall in US Treasury yields also supported the price of gold. The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury note fell 2.5 basis points to 3.631%.
Valencia said that in the geopolitical field, there is still a risk that the Middle East conflict will escalate, and the apparent assassination attempt against former US President Donald Trump (Donald Trump) has weakened the dollar.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that the current market already reflects the situation where the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points. This is the reason why the price of gold is so high. If the Fed cuts interest rates by only 25 basis points in the end, the price of gold will fall.
This week's focus is on the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision announced on Wednesday. According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch” tool, traders expect a 61% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Because gold does not prosper, a low interest rate environment can reduce investment in goldOpportunity costs, which is more beneficial to it.
Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metal strategist at Zaner Metals, said that former US President Trump was assassinated twice on Sunday, causing some political uncertainty, which is often beneficial to gold. In times of political and economic uncertainty, gold is viewed asSafehaven assets.
The ANZ analyst report stated, “We expect that strategic investment in gold will recover and drive up the price of gold. An interest rate cut of 100 basis points could lead to a net inflow of 200-250 tons of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the next few months.” They expect the price of gold to rise to 2,700 US dollars/ounce in the short term and reach a high of 2,900 US dollars/ounce by the end of 2025.
“Horror data” hits big
At 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August.
Economists expect the monthly retail sales rate in the US to fall by 0.2% in August, compared to a 1% increase in July.
US retail sales data is known as “horror data”. Because it usually has a big impact on the financial market, it is likely to have an impact on asset trends such as the US dollar and gold.
Valencia indicated that the US retail sales data for August will be released on Tuesday. Compared with the strong data for July, the August data is expected to decline and is expected to guide the amount of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
CNBC host and former hedge fund manager JimCramer called it the last important data before the Federal Reserve made a decision. He said the report was a good measure of consumer spending, and he predicted that the data would be weak. Consumer spending is a major pillar of the US economy, and one reason why the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in decades has yet to bring about a recession.
UBS said they are closely watching retail sales and industrial production data. Weak data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points.
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer pointed out that negative retail sales data may make it difficult for the dollar to find demand and help gold rise. However, the market's reaction may still be short-lived, and investors avoided opening large positions until the Federal Reserve announced monetary policy on Wednesday.
How to trade gold?
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia said that the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, supported by strong demand and momentum.Relative strength index(RSI) It is in the bullish zone and remains slightly below 80, which traders generally consider to be an “extreme” overbought under strong trend conditions.
Valencia said that if the gold price overcomes the historical high of 2,589 US dollars/ounce, the next target will be 2,600 US dollars/ounce. If it breaks through the latter, it is expected that the price of gold will rise further. Next, it will target the two psychological levels of $2,650 per ounce and $2,700 per ounce.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
Valencia added that on the downside, gold sellers must push the price of gold below $2,550 per ounce to regain control. Key support levels after that include the August 20 high of $2,531 per ounce, followed by the key $2,500 per ounce mark.